Adam Crettenden

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.3% trails market-implied 31.6% by -10.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -33.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -44.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -5.1% (-39.2% → -44.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.2% (-30.3% → -33.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

21.3%

Avg Odds

3.96

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-41.67

ROI

-44.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-33.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.6%

Calibration Gap

-10.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	94	$-41.67	-44.3%
Minus best 1 bet	93	$-46.17	-49.6%
Minus best 2 bets	92	$-49.97	-54.3%
Minus best 5 bets	89	$-59.87	-67.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-42.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-50.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	8	37.5%	3.04	$-0.40	-5.0%
2026-04	8	0.0%	4.01	$-14.00	-175.0%
2026-05	67	22.4%	3.84	$-23.42	-35.0%
2026-06	11	18.2%	5.32	$-3.85	-35.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	11	45.5%	$-3.17	-28.8%
2.0-3.0	23	30.4%	$-5.40	-23.5%
3.0-5.0	38	18.4%	$-16.60	-43.7%
5.0-8.0	17	5.9%	$-11.50	-67.6%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	14	35.7%	$-4.42	-31.6%
Rank 2	14	21.4%	$-0.50	-3.6%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 39 of 94 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	37	21.6%	$-13.92	-37.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	94	21.3%	$-41.67	-44.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
picklebet park werribee	14	42.9%	+$3.48	+24.9%
southside pakenham	9	33.3%	+$1.85	+20.6%
bet365 stawell	8	25.0%	$-3.55	-44.4%
ararat	7	14.3%	$-4.30	-61.4%
warrnambool	15	26.7%	$-4.40	-29.3%
bet365 hamilton	8	12.5%	$-6.50	-81.2%
bet365 park kilmore	15	13.3%	$-6.60	-44.0%
horsham	14	0.0%	$-20.00	-142.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	31	19.4%	$-20.15	-65.0%
Tue	14	7.1%	$-12.50	-89.3%
Thu	19	26.3%	$-6.15	-32.4%
Fri	17	23.5%	$-2.55	-15.0%
Sat	13	30.8%	$-0.32	-2.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.24 (-37.3% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-01	southside pakenham	Hey Bella	5.50	+$4.50
2026-06-01	bet365 park kilmore	It Matters	4.80	+$3.80
2026-05-30	picklebet park werribee	Analytical	4.50	+$3.50
2026-03-09	warrnambool	Morgana	4.00	+$3.20
2026-05-30	picklebet park werribee	Sea Trader	4.20	+$3.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-27	horsham	Triomphe	3.50	$-3.00
2026-04-27	horsham	Durham	3.80	$-3.00
2026-04-27	horsham	Simply Excels	4.20	$-3.00
2026-05-07	warrnambool	Wuddzz	6.00	$-1.00
2026-05-07	warrnambool	Danzsin	4.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.