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Adam Olszanski
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.8% trails market-implied 33.3% by -7.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -11.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-48.4%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -26.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -19.7% (-10.9% → -30.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -15.0% (-11.4% → -26.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-47.49
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-26.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 155 | $-47.49 | -30.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 154 | $-55.99 | -36.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 153 | $-62.49 | -40.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 150 | $-76.58 | -51.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 8 | 25.0% | 3.34 | $-2.34 | -29.2% |
| 2026-04 | 72 | 23.6% | 4.44 | $-36.40 | -50.6% |
| 2026-05 | 68 | 30.9% | 4.04 | $-1.75 | -2.6% |
| 2026-06 | 7 | 0.0% | 3.60 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 25 | 56.0% | +$2.80 | +11.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 47 | 38.3% | $-6.59 | -14.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 46 | 10.9% | $-28.70 | -62.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 21 | 9.5% | $-8.50 | -40.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 13 | 7.7% | $-3.50 | -26.9% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 16 | 37.5% | $-0.20 | -1.2% |
| Rank 2 | 11 | 9.1% | $-7.60 | -69.1% |
| Rank 3 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | +$6.50 | +216.7% |
Based on 37 of 155 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 29 | 27.6% | $-0.30 | -1.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 155 | 25.8% | $-47.49 | -30.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| southside pakenham | 49 | 32.7% | +$3.22 | +6.6% |
| bet365 seymour | 5 | 40.0% | +$1.20 | +24.0% |
| moe | 16 | 37.5% | $-1.70 | -10.6% |
| stony creek | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.34 | -29.2% |
| picklebet park werribee | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.36 | -62.3% |
| caulfield | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.40 | -60.0% |
| sportsbet sandown lakeside | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| mornington | 15 | 20.0% | $-7.10 | -47.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 16 | 37.5% | +$0.05 | +0.3% |
| Wed | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| Thu | 23 | 39.1% | +$2.47 | +10.7% |
| Fri | 54 | 25.9% | $-12.81 | -23.7% |
| Sat | 24 | 20.8% | $-13.91 | -58.0% |
| Sun | 31 | 19.4% | $-16.29 | -52.5% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 60.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.01 (+20.3% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-22 | southside pakenham | Le Notre | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-05-17 | sale | Flying Mikki | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-04-16 | southside pakenham | Yes Yoshi | 1.90 | +$6.45 |
| 2026-05-15 | southside pakenham | Aristonous | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-11 | picklebet park werribee | Share The Stars | 2.10 | +$3.64 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-17 | southside cranbourne | Viasain | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-11 | picklebet park werribee | No No No No No | 1.75 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | sale | Gatwick | 2.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | southside cranbourne | Golden Spritz | 2.05 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | sale | Killiana | 1.65 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.