Alex Vlahos

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.4% vs implied 28.4% (+2.0pp). Picks track market expectations. 230% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -22.9% on 21 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -10.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+89.7%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw +16.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +35.8% (-19.8% → +16.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +12.0% (-15.8% → -3.9%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

30.4%

Avg Odds

3.81

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.68

ROI

+16.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-3.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.4%

Calibration Gap

+2.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	23	+$3.68	+16.0%
Minus best 1 bet	22	$-1.32	-6.0%
Minus best 2 bets	21	$-4.80	-22.9%
Minus best 5 bets	18	$-13.10	-72.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-10.0%

Prior 60d ROI

+89.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	6	50.0%	3.92	+$5.38	+89.7%
2026-05	17	23.5%	3.77	$-1.70	-10.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	5	60.0%	+$4.38	+87.6%
3.0-5.0	15	20.0%	$-3.70	-24.7%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	+$3.00	+100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	9	22.2%	$-3.10	-34.4%
Rank 2	6	16.7%	$-2.60	-43.3%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 17 of 23 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
Outside Zone	16	18.8%	$-6.70	-41.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	23	30.4%	+$3.68	+16.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
york	6	50.0%	+$5.38	+89.7%
port hedland	6	33.3%	+$2.20	+36.7%
carnarvon	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
roebourne	6	16.7%	$-2.60	-43.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	50.0%	+$5.38	+89.7%
Sat	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
Sun	12	25.0%	$-0.40	-3.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.73 (+24.3% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-31	port hedland	Fameux	6.00	+$5.00
2026-04-06	york	Masamune	2.70	+$3.48
2026-04-06	york	Saucisson	4.20	+$3.20
2026-05-30	carnarvon	Mystery Minute	3.70	+$2.70
2026-05-24	roebourne	Percussion Prince	3.40	+$2.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-06	york	Gold Beau	5.50	$-1.00
2026-05-31	port hedland	Immortal Shield	4.00	$-1.00
2026-05-24	roebourne	Eight Ounces	4.50	$-1.00
2026-05-30	carnarvon	Alma Mater	6.50	$-1.00
2026-05-31	port hedland	Esquel	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.