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Alex Vlahos
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is positive: actual win rate 31.8% beats market-implied 25.5% by +6.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 76% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +8.2% on 64 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +17.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+46.1%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +13.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +33.7%.
Bio & context
Alex Vlahos is a Western Australian race caller and broadcaster working for TABradio and Racing WA. He co-hosts The Races WA Podcast (launched September 2022) alongside Lochie Taylor and Brittany Taylor, and appears on TABradio's weekday Drive show covering thoroughbred racing across metro and country WA tracks. He provides tips through TheGreatTipOff platform and competes in Racing WA tipping competitions, with a specialty focus on Western Australian racing.
Perth, Western AustraliaRace caller and broadcaster4 yrs
Methodology: Form-based analysis with strong focus on regional WA racing knowledge; participates in tipping competitions and provides race previews covering metro and country meetings
Specialty: Western Australian racing (metro and country tracks)
Public footprint
- Co-host of The Races WA Podcast (launched September 2022, weekly episodes)
- TABradio Drive show co-host (Monday-Friday, 3-6pm)
- TheGreatTipOff.com tipster
- Racing WA tipping competition participant
Public track-record claims
- July 2021: 5 of 7 winners at Roebourne meeting, 126% POT at average price of $3.17 (TheGreatTipOff performance review)
- Top performing media analyst in 2023-24 Racing WA tipping competition (Racing WA promotion)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.5% (+42.2% → +33.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -8.9% (+22.5% → +13.6%) · Verdict: PROMISING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$22.25
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+13.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
25.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 66 | +$22.25 | +33.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 65 | +$12.25 | +18.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 64 | +$5.25 | +8.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 61 | $-11.75 | -19.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 10 | 60.0% | 5.61 | +$9.85 | +98.5% |
| 2026-07 | 20 | 25.0% | 5.10 | $-0.80 | -4.0% |
| 2026-08 | 25 | 28.0% | 5.28 | +$17.05 | +68.2% |
| 2026-09 | 11 | 27.3% | 3.42 | $-3.85 | -35.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$0.30 | +10.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 10 | 50.0% | +$1.65 | +16.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 25 | 32.0% | +$4.30 | +17.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 21 | 19.0% | +$4.00 | +19.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 6 | 33.3% | +$13.00 | +216.7% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 23 | 43.5% | +$3.30 | +14.3% |
| Rank 2 | 14 | 28.6% | $-0.85 | -6.1% |
| Rank 3 | 9 | 22.2% | +$3.00 | +33.3% |
| Rank 4-5 | 13 | 30.8% | +$12.80 | +98.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 7 | 14.3% | +$4.00 | +57.1% |
Based on 66 of 66 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 10 | 20.0% | +$2.00 | +20.0% |
| Outside Zone | 56 | 33.9% | +$20.25 | +36.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 66 | 31.8% | +$22.25 | +33.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| carnarvon | 21 | 42.9% | +$18.85 | +89.8% |
| port hedland | 14 | 35.7% | +$10.80 | +77.1% |
| kununurra | 6 | 33.3% | +$3.05 | +50.8% |
| bunbury | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.95 | -19.0% |
| junction | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.90 | -48.3% |
| marble bar | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| newman | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.95 | -19.0% |
| Fri | 15 | 46.7% | +$6.85 | +45.7% |
| Sat | 26 | 19.2% | $-6.45 | -24.8% |
| Sun | 20 | 35.0% | +$22.80 | +114.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 9 settled, place rate 44.4%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.12 (-23.6% ROI) on 9 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-16 | carnarvon | Odin Omen | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | port hedland | Fameux | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | kununurra | Vevinsky | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-08-16 | carnarvon | Soaring Solo | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | carnarvon | River Beauty | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-16 | carnarvon | Yes I Believe | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | junction | Mrs Kangaroo | 4.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | port hedland | Catalpa | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | port hedland | Royalzel | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | marble bar | Kermelia | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.