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Amanda Rando
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (31 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 35.5% trails market-implied 42.9% by -7.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +5.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-71.7%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -23.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -39.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +4.2% (-43.8% → -39.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.6% (-30.7% → -23.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-12.26
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-23.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
42.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 31 | $-12.26 | -39.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 30 | $-15.16 | -50.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 29 | $-17.06 | -58.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 26 | $-19.16 | -73.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 9 | 44.4% | 4.50 | $-3.91 | -43.4% |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 0.0% | 5.64 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 11 | 36.4% | 4.68 | $-5.35 | -48.6% |
| 2026-06 | 4 | 75.0% | 2.82 | +$4.00 | +100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 12 | 75.0% | $-0.06 | -0.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 25.0% | $-1.10 | -27.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.10 | -22.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 100.0% | +$0.85 | +28.3% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 100.0% | +$4.80 | +240.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 7 of 31 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 7 | 71.4% | +$3.65 | +52.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 31 | 35.5% | $-12.26 | -39.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| menangle | 14 | 57.1% | +$1.07 | +7.6% |
| penrith | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 28.6% | $-4.98 | -71.1% |
| Tue | 14 | 57.1% | +$1.07 | +7.6% |
| Thu | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Fri | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.35 | -67.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-02 | menangle | Sky Blu | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-06-02 | menangle | Classic Mission Nz | 2.90 | +$1.90 |
| 2026-03-31 | menangle | Rivera Lou | 1.85 | +$0.85 |
| 2026-05-15 | newcastle | Lochinvar Marcello | 1.65 | +$0.65 |
| 2026-05-19 | menangle | Bettorlightem Up | 1.60 | +$0.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-12 | menangle | Montalbano | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | menangle | Action Major Nz | 14.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | newcastle | Sugar Pie Honey | 1.45 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | wagga | Millwood Grace Nz | 19.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | penrith | Quiet Storm | 1.65 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.