Andre Kassay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 31.6% vs implied 31.1% (+0.4pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -7.4%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-57.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -33.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -17.5% (-16.3% → -33.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -4.5% (-14.2% → -18.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

31.6%

Avg Odds

4.51

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-6.42

ROI

-33.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.1%

Calibration Gap

+0.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	19	$-6.42	-33.8%
Minus best 1 bet	18	$-9.02	-50.1%
Minus best 2 bets	17	$-10.32	-60.7%
Minus best 5 bets	14	$-12.72	-90.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-7.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-57.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	4	25.0%	4.64	$-2.05	-51.2%
2026-04	6	16.7%	4.78	$-3.70	-61.7%
2026-05	7	57.1%	3.65	+$1.33	+19.0%
2026-06	2	0.0%	6.50	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	100.0%	+$2.68	+67.0%
2.0-3.0	2	50.0%	+$0.30	+15.0%
3.0-5.0	8	12.5%	$-4.40	-55.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 3	2	50.0%	$-0.15	-7.5%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 6 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	6	16.7%	$-4.15	-69.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	19	31.6%	$-6.42	-33.8%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-10	echuca	Zuppa Inglese	3.60	+$2.60
2026-04-12	seymour	Amedei	2.30	+$1.30
2026-03-16	terang	Which Floor	1.95	+$0.95
2026-05-17	stawell	Nothin' Wong Here	1.85	+$0.85
2026-05-10	echuca	Regal Gent	1.60	+$0.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-29	bendigo	Zentorno	9.00	$-1.00
2026-04-02	ballarat	Southern Crescent	4.20	$-1.00
2026-04-09	geelong	Tsavo	4.80	$-1.00
2026-03-16	terang	The Last King	2.70	$-1.00
2026-04-09	geelong	Hotinherre	10.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.