Andrew O'Toole

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 47.4% beats market-implied 34.3% by +13.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 103% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -0.9% on 17 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +46.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (+20.4%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -1.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +28.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -20.1% (+48.8% → +28.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -9.1% (+7.6% → -1.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

47.4%

Avg Odds

3.46

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$5.45

ROI

+28.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-1.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

34.3%

Calibration Gap

+13.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	19	+$5.45	+28.7%
Minus best 1 bet	18	+$2.55	+14.2%
Minus best 2 bets	17	$-0.15	-0.9%
Minus best 5 bets	14	$-6.20	-44.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+46.7%

Prior 60d ROI

+20.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	13	46.2%	3.70	+$2.65	+20.4%
2026-08	3	0.0%	2.93	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-09	3	100.0%	2.93	+$5.80	+193.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$1.60	+80.0%
2.0-3.0	7	42.9%	$-0.35	-5.0%
3.0-5.0	8	50.0%	+$6.20	+77.5%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	11	54.5%	+$4.85	+44.1%
Rank 2	4	50.0%	+$2.60	+65.0%
Rank 3	3	33.3%	$-1.00	-33.3%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 19 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	18	50.0%	+$6.45	+35.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	19	47.4%	+$5.45	+28.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
darwin	16	56.2%	+$8.45	+52.8%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Sat	16	56.2%	+$8.45	+52.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 25.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.00 (-50.0% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-10	darwin	Luna Field	3.90	+$2.90
2026-07-03	darwin	Leveraged Buyout	3.70	+$2.70
2026-09-04	darwin	Miami Baby	3.40	+$2.40
2026-09-04	darwin	Montjuic Magic	3.20	+$2.20
2026-07-10	darwin	Anson Bay	2.45	+$1.45

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-27	alice springs	Revolution Rising	2.50	$-1.00
2026-07-24	darwin	Press Express	6.00	$-1.00
2026-07-31	darwin	Great Buy	9.00	$-1.00
2026-07-17	darwin	Vieri	4.20	$-1.00
2026-07-31	darwin	Capitol Hill	3.90	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.