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Betfair Data Scientists
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.0% trails market-implied 29.6% by -9.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -15.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.2%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -92.5% (+57.3% → -35.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -49.5% (+34.5% → -15.0%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.76
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-15.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | 0.0% | 4.50 | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 4 | 25.0% | 3.25 | $-0.76 | -19.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.76 | -19.0% |
By pre-race rank
No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
No rank data yet.
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| payload | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.76 | -35.2% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.76 | -19.0% |
| Thu | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-25 | mornington | Meisho | 3.24 | +$2.24 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | alice springs | Bender McGee | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | echuca | Zuppa Inglese | 3.12 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | corowa | Under Wraps | 2.65 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | redcliffe | Exit Stage Left | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.