Brendan Tupper

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (24 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 29.2% beats market-implied 25.0% by +4.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 236% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -22.3% on 22 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw +15.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -31.5% (+46.5% → +15.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -12.8% (+8.9% → -3.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

29.2%

Avg Odds

4.76

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.60

ROI

+15.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-3.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

25.0%

Calibration Gap

+4.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	24	+$3.60	+15.0%
Minus best 1 bet	23	$-0.90	-3.9%
Minus best 2 bets	22	$-4.90	-22.3%
Minus best 5 bets	19	$-14.30	-75.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	9	11.1%	5.48	$-6.10	-67.8%
2026-04	11	54.5%	4.26	+$13.70	+124.5%
2026-06	4	0.0%	4.53	$-4.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.80	+80.0%
2.0-3.0	5	20.0%	$-2.10	-42.0%
3.0-5.0	8	37.5%	+$4.40	+55.0%
5.0-8.0	9	22.2%	+$1.50	+16.7%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 4 of 24 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	24	29.2%	+$3.60	+15.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sandown	8	12.5%	$-5.10	-63.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	1	100.0%	+$3.20	+320.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-22	geelong	Move The Torana	5.50	+$4.50
2026-04-21	geelong	Wingsandpropellers	5.00	+$4.00
2026-04-20	geelong	Soldier Boi	4.20	+$3.20
2026-04-21	geelong	Soldier Boi	4.20	+$3.20
2026-04-15	pakenham	Shidan	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-15	pakenham	Parvenu	2.40	$-1.00
2026-06-02	sandown	Tan Tat Delight	4.20	$-1.00
2026-06-02	sandown	Double Pi	7.50	$-1.00
2026-03-27	flemington	Moor Mumm	7.00	$-1.00
2026-06-02	sandown	Rodriquez	2.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.