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Campbell Brown
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.6% trails market-implied 34.4% by -9.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -61.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-19.7%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -26.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw -36.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -2.7% (-34.0% → -36.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.0% (-27.0% → -26.0%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-22.35
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-26.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 61 | $-22.35 | -36.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 60 | $-26.85 | -44.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 59 | $-29.85 | -50.6% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 56 | $-36.35 | -64.9% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 15 | 40.0% | 3.35 | +$4.60 | +30.7% |
| 2026-04 | 17 | 23.5% | 2.98 | $-9.35 | -55.0% |
| 2026-05 | 25 | 20.0% | 3.61 | $-13.60 | -54.4% |
| 2026-06 | 4 | 0.0% | 3.69 | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 8 | 50.0% | $-0.70 | -8.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 21 | 33.3% | $-4.05 | -19.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 24 | 12.5% | $-15.10 | -62.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 16.7% | $-0.50 | -8.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 6 of 61 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 61 | 24.6% | $-22.35 | -36.6% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 3 | 66.7% | +$3.45 | +115.0% |
| Tue | 21 | 28.6% | $-9.55 | -45.5% |
| Wed | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.90 | +22.5% |
| Thu | 14 | 7.1% | $-11.75 | -83.9% |
| Fri | 19 | 21.1% | $-5.40 | -28.4% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-13 | kembla grange | De Louviere | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-03-09 | morphettville | Alaa Plenty | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | toowoomba | Apostle | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-05-13 | bendigo | Clevor Trever | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | canberra | Iowna Benz | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-07 | grafton | Slugworth | 3.60 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | ascot | Lipstick Jungle | 3.20 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | warrnambool | Tempesti | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | kilmore | Tennesseetwopiece | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | goulburn | Sugilite | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.