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Clint Hutchison
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.4% trails market-implied 32.1% by -3.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -57.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+7.2%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +0.9% (-19.6% → -18.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.0% (-18.4% → -17.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-31.49
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-17.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
32.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 169 | $-31.49 | -18.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 168 | $-47.69 | -28.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 167 | $-58.79 | -35.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 164 | $-77.17 | -47.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 26 | 30.8% | 3.24 | $-1.63 | -6.3% |
| 2026-04 | 59 | 37.3% | 4.09 | +$19.04 | +32.3% |
| 2026-05 | 70 | 21.4% | 4.16 | $-48.15 | -68.8% |
| 2026-06 | 14 | 21.4% | 4.11 | $-0.75 | -5.4% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 17 | 70.6% | +$3.42 | +20.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 54 | 33.3% | $-9.79 | -18.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 62 | 25.8% | $-1.82 | -2.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 27 | 7.4% | $-14.30 | -53.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 25 | 24.0% | $-12.45 | -49.8% |
| Rank 2 | 13 | 7.7% | $-13.70 | -105.4% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -133.3% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$3.50 | +87.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 51 of 169 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -140.0% |
| Outside Zone | 46 | 17.4% | $-26.65 | -57.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 169 | 28.4% | $-31.49 | -18.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 28 | 35.7% | +$22.60 | +80.7% |
| sale | 7 | 71.4% | +$5.49 | +78.4% |
| casterton | 8 | 37.5% | +$1.20 | +15.0% |
| warrnambool | 7 | 57.1% | +$1.15 | +16.4% |
| sportsbet sandown lakeside | 15 | 33.3% | +$0.56 | +3.7% |
| bet365 swan hill | 7 | 14.3% | +$0.50 | +7.1% |
| stony creek | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.74 | -9.3% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 8 | 37.5% | $-1.07 | -13.4% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| flemington | 26 | 26.9% | $-8.79 | -33.8% |
| mornington | 10 | 20.0% | $-11.20 | -112.0% |
| bendigo | 9 | 11.1% | $-11.30 | -125.6% |
| caulfield heath | 16 | 18.8% | $-16.24 | -101.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 53 | 37.7% | $-10.11 | -19.1% |
| Fri | 7 | 14.3% | +$0.50 | +7.1% |
| Sat | 87 | 24.1% | $-18.49 | -21.3% |
| Sun | 22 | 27.3% | $-3.39 | -15.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.35 (-22.5% ROI) on 6 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-11 | caulfield | Soft Love | 6.00 | +$16.20 |
| 2026-04-11 | caulfield | King Tut | 4.20 | +$11.10 |
| 2026-04-11 | caulfield | Gin Twist | 3.00 | +$7.20 |
| 2026-06-05 | bet365 swan hill | Mountjoy | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-04-22 | ladbrokes geelong | Brutalina | 2.60 | +$4.68 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-16 | flemington | Stoli Bolli | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Naifah | 6.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | caulfield heath | Street Lark | 4.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | caulfield heath | Tennessee Spirit | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | ladbrokes geelong | Mrs Iglesia | 2.80 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.