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Damian Watson
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 11.1% trails market-implied 23.5% by -12.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -43.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -24.8% (-19.1% → -43.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.1% (-15.1% → -21.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-7.90
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-21.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 18 | $-7.90 | -43.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 17 | $-15.90 | -93.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 16 | $-16.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 13 | $-13.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | 0.0% | 5.50 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-04 | 8 | 0.0% | 10.76 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 6 | 16.7% | 7.50 | +$3.00 | +50.0% |
| 2026-06 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.10 | +$0.10 | +10.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.90 | -45.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 33.3% | +$6.00 | +200.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.10 | +10.0% |
Based on 1 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.10 | +10.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 18 | 11.1% | $-7.90 | -43.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| pakenham | 6 | 16.7% | +$3.00 | +50.0% |
| cranbourne | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 18 | 11.1% | $-7.90 | -43.9% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | pakenham | Legio Ten | 9.00 | +$8.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | geelong | Some Magic | 1.10 | +$0.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-24 | cranbourne | Dun Gracefully | 7.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | cranbourne | Maldini | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | cranbourne | Croatian Art | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | cranbourne | Lil Orlov | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | cranbourne | Iftihar | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.