Daniel Cripps

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 38.2% beats market-implied 28.9% by +9.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 134% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -9.9% on 32 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -50.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+43.6%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +3.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +27.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +3 new bets · ROI: -12.3% (+39.4% → +27.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.8% (+7.1% → +3.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

38.2%

Avg Odds

4.41

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$9.22

ROI

+27.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+3.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.9%

Calibration Gap

+9.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	34	+$9.22	+27.1%
Minus best 1 bet	33	+$2.02	+6.1%
Minus best 2 bets	32	$-3.18	-9.9%
Minus best 5 bets	29	$-11.23	-38.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-50.0%

Prior 60d ROI

+43.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	7	42.9%	3.56	+$2.10	+30.0%
2026-07	21	42.9%	4.92	+$10.12	+48.2%
2026-09	6	16.7%	3.58	$-3.00	-50.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$2.13	+71.0%
2.0-3.0	7	57.1%	+$2.64	+37.7%
3.0-5.0	16	25.0%	$-1.95	-12.2%
5.0-8.0	5	20.0%	+$1.20	+24.0%
8.0-15	2	50.0%	+$6.20	+310.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	11	36.4%	$-1.77	-16.1%
Rank 2	11	27.3%	+$5.62	+51.1%
Rank 4-5	6	33.3%	$-0.98	-16.3%

Based on 28 of 34 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	100.0%	+$12.40	+620.0%
Outside Zone	26	26.9%	$-9.53	-36.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	34	38.2%	+$9.22	+27.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	11	45.5%	+$11.40	+103.6%
northam	6	16.7%	$-2.65	-44.2%
pinjarra	8	25.0%	$-4.52	-56.5%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.05 (-1.2% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-04	belmont	12. Two Time Charlie	8.20	+$7.20
2026-07-01	belmont	3. Mind Field	6.20	+$5.20
2026-06-27		2. Charino	4.00	+$3.00
2026-07-16		8. Unwanted News	3.70	+$2.70
2026-06-25	northam	10. Shimonoseki	3.35	+$2.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-23	northam	3. Two Up Boom	2.62	$-1.00
2026-07-15	bunbury	4. Cosmo Ruler	3.50	$-1.00
2026-07-02	pinjarra	7. Buderim	8.20	$-1.00
2026-07-11		5. Repossession	5.60	$-1.00
2026-09-09	belmont	2. Vienna Calling	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.