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Darren Carroll
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (37 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 40.5% trails market-implied 56.1% by -15.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -20.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.1% (-22.6% → -30.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.9% (-18.6% → -20.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-11.34
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-20.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
56.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 37 | $-11.34 | -30.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 36 | $-13.14 | -36.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 35 | $-14.39 | -41.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 32 | $-17.24 | -53.9% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 9 | 44.4% | 1.82 | $-2.38 | -26.4% |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 42.9% | 1.71 | $-1.85 | -26.4% |
| 2026-05 | 16 | 43.8% | 2.02 | $-3.86 | -24.1% |
| 2026-06 | 5 | 20.0% | 2.98 | $-3.25 | -65.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 26 | 46.2% | $-7.54 | -29.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.20 | +2.9% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 7 | 57.1% | $-0.46 | -6.6% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 10 of 37 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 10 | 40.0% | $-3.46 | -34.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 37 | 40.5% | $-11.34 | -30.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| maryborough | 7 | 28.6% | $-4.08 | -58.3% |
| shepparton | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.25 | -78.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 18 | 38.9% | $-7.39 | -41.1% |
| Tue | 10 | 30.0% | $-4.55 | -45.5% |
| Thu | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.25 | +12.5% |
| Fri | 7 | 57.1% | +$0.35 | +5.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | melton | Very Tempting | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-04-23 | ballarat | Katunga Express | 2.25 | +$1.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | swan hill | Thunderfire | 2.15 | +$1.15 |
| 2026-05-25 | horsham | Happily | 1.90 | +$0.90 |
| 2026-05-01 | mildura | Ravishing Roxy | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-11 | maryborough | High Tempo | 1.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | shepparton | Thereshewas | 1.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | melton | Teerdee | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | terang | Cee Whos Bettor Nz | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | maryborough | Scar | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.