Darren McAullay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 32.2% vs implied 32.3% (-0.1pp). Picks track market expectations.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -3.8% (-11.5% → -15.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.9% (-11.8% → -14.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

152

Wins

Win Rate

32.2%

Avg Odds

4.59

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-23.21

ROI

-15.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.3%

Calibration Gap

-0.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	152	$-23.21	-15.3%
Minus best 1 bet	151	$-30.41	-20.1%
Minus best 2 bets	150	$-36.41	-24.3%
Minus best 5 bets	147	$-50.01	-34.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-19.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-10.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	24	20.8%	3.67	$-6.64	-27.7%
2026-04	40	35.0%	3.73	+$2.70	+6.7%
2026-05	72	30.6%	5.58	$-20.80	-28.9%
2026-06	16	50.0%	3.69	+$1.53	+9.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	19	73.7%	+$2.58	+13.6%
2.0-3.0	43	39.5%	$-8.09	-18.8%
3.0-5.0	55	25.5%	$-8.20	-14.9%
5.0-8.0	21	19.0%	+$4.50	+21.4%
8.0-15	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
15+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	22	68.2%	+$7.63	+34.7%
Rank 2	15	6.7%	$-11.50	-76.7%
Rank 3	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	33.3%	+$4.00	+133.3%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 47 of 152 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	39	43.6%	+$1.13	+2.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	152	32.2%	$-23.21	-15.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pinjarra scarpside	17	52.9%	+$8.23	+48.4%
rockingham	7	57.1%	+$6.10	+87.1%
northam	7	42.9%	$-0.25	-3.6%
york	6	33.3%	$-1.50	-25.0%
geraldton	22	27.3%	$-2.54	-11.5%
belmont	45	35.6%	$-6.50	-14.4%
pinjarra park	10	10.0%	$-7.95	-79.5%
ascot	38	21.1%	$-18.80	-49.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	45	31.1%	$-8.95	-19.9%
Thu	24	25.0%	$-17.07	-71.1%
Fri	12	41.7%	+$0.96	+8.0%
Sat	49	30.6%	$-8.00	-16.3%
Sun	22	40.9%	+$9.85	+44.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.13 (-28.2% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-19	geraldton	Blue Lupin	7.50	+$7.20
2026-05-30	belmont	The Calabrese	7.00	+$6.00
2026-04-19	geraldton	Sneaky Session	5.50	+$4.80
2026-04-18	ascot	Kings Court	5.50	+$4.50
2026-03-13	geraldton	Flaming Dragon	4.20	+$4.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-30	geraldton	Deep Discretion	1.95	$-3.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Awesome Lily	4.20	$-3.00
2026-05-03	northam	Belaura Star	2.25	$-3.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Kallahti	3.80	$-3.00
2026-04-19	geraldton	Playing Games	3.60	$-3.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.