David Gately

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 43.5% beats market-implied 32.2% by +11.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 268% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -15.2% on 21 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -7.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+15.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +8.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +42.6% (-34.4% → +8.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +17.2% (-23.5% → -6.3%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

43.5%

Avg Odds

4.51

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.90

ROI

+8.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.2%

Calibration Gap

+11.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	23	+$1.90	+8.3%
Minus best 1 bet	22	$-1.10	-5.0%
Minus best 2 bets	21	$-3.20	-15.2%
Minus best 5 bets	18	$-8.50	-47.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-7.1%

Prior 60d ROI

+15.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	6	50.0%	5.77	+$3.30	+55.0%
2026-07	10	40.0%	3.88	$-0.90	-9.0%
2026-08	3	0.0%	5.13	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-09	4	75.0%	3.75	+$2.50	+62.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$1.20	+60.0%
2.0-3.0	10	50.0%	+$1.50	+15.0%
3.0-5.0	3	100.0%	+$7.20	+240.0%
5.0-8.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	13	61.5%	+$6.00	+46.2%
Rank 2	5	40.0%	+$0.90	+18.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 23 of 23 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	20	50.0%	+$4.90	+24.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	23	43.5%	+$1.90	+8.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rosehill	6	66.7%	+$3.00	+50.0%
flemington	6	50.0%	+$0.70	+11.7%
caulfield	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	23	43.5%	+$1.90	+8.3%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-19	randwick	Glorious Moments	4.00	+$3.00
2026-06-19	flemington	Decalogue	3.10	+$2.10
2026-07-10	randwick	Benevac	3.10	+$2.10
2026-09-11	rosehill	Anthracite	2.80	+$1.80
2026-07-17	rosehill	Columbia Blue	2.40	+$1.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-24	randwick	Benevac	2.80	$-1.00
2026-07-31	rosehill	Tarzing	2.30	$-1.00
2026-07-17	flemington	Moby Dick	8.00	$-1.00
2026-06-26	caulfield	Brave Miss	14.00	$-1.00
2026-07-03	flemington	Al Duca	2.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.