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David Gately
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (25 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.0% trails market-implied 30.9% by -14.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -27.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -56.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -24.4% (-31.6% → -56.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.8% (-20.5% → -27.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-14.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-27.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 25 | $-14.00 | -56.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 24 | $-18.00 | -75.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 23 | $-19.20 | -83.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 20 | $-20.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | 33.3% | 7.07 | $-0.80 | -26.7% |
| 2026-04 | 11 | 18.2% | 3.62 | $-7.20 | -65.5% |
| 2026-05 | 11 | 9.1% | 5.82 | $-6.00 | -54.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.40 | -46.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 8 | 25.0% | $-3.60 | -45.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 33.3% | +$2.00 | +66.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 6 of 25 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 25 | 16.0% | $-14.00 | -56.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 7 | 42.9% | +$2.40 | +34.3% |
| randwick | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.40 | -73.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 25 | 16.0% | $-14.00 | -56.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-08 | caulfield | Makdane | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | caulfield | Terilee | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-03-14 | caulfield | Salty Pearl | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-04-10 | randwick | Tempted | 1.60 | +$0.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-22 | sandown | The Volta | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | flemington | Carriedo | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | caulfield | Dirty Look | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | rosehill | Gorgeous | 2.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | caulfield | Swift Force | 1.45 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.