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David Strehlau
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.7% trails market-implied 28.8% by -5.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -45.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-13.5%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -27.9%.
Bio & context
David Strehlau, known as "Sults" or "The Sultan of Sydney," is a form analyst at Racing.com who started his racing career in December 2018 via Twitter. Previously a PE teacher, he transitioned full-time to racing media and is co-founder of the 2 UNITS brand with Nick Foot, which includes a podcast launched in March 2021. He is part-owner of horses trained by Mitch Beer, creating a potential conflict when tipping Beer-trained runners.
Melbourne, VictoriaForm Analyst at Racing.com; co-founder of 2 UNITS podcast and brand6 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns horses with trainer Mitch Beer (Albury-based) - monitor/separate Beer-trained selections
- Part of 2 UNITS syndicate ownership group - may tip own horses
Methodology: Data-driven form analysis focusing on sectionals, times, replays, and race variables. Initially focused on NSW metro racing but expanded to Victoria and South Australia.
Specialty: Victoria, New South Wales, and South Australia thoroughbred racing
Public footprint
- Twitter: @Sultan_Racing (previously @sultan_sydney, started Dec 2018)
- 2 UNITS Podcast (co-host with Nick Foot, launched March 2021)
- Racing.com form analyst and on-air presenter
- 2units.com.au website
Horse ownership / breeding
- Part-owner of Scissor Me Timbers (trained by Mitch Beer)
- Member of 2 UNITS racing stable syndicate
Industry connections
- Mitch Beer (trainer - owns horses with Beer)
- Nick Foot (2 UNITS co-founder and podcast partner)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-05-31
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -19.1% (-8.8% → -27.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -15.3% (-9.5% → -24.8%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-54.03
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-24.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 194 | $-54.03 | -27.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 193 | $-72.03 | -37.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 192 | $-81.93 | -42.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 189 | $-102.33 | -54.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 36 | 30.6% | 5.47 | +$9.09 | +25.3% |
| 2026-04 | 72 | 25.0% | 4.80 | $-23.67 | -32.9% |
| 2026-05 | 86 | 19.8% | 4.76 | $-39.45 | -45.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 18 | 55.6% | $-1.89 | -10.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 47 | 34.0% | $-11.05 | -23.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 56 | 17.9% | $-26.49 | -47.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 42 | 19.0% | $-7.40 | -17.6% |
| 8.0-15 | 25 | 4.0% | $-20.20 | -80.8% |
| 15+ | 6 | 16.7% | +$13.00 | +216.7% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 17 | 17.6% | $-15.70 | -92.4% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 33.3% | +$1.50 | +50.0% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.50 | +30.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 10 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +10.0% |
Based on 35 of 194 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.50 | +30.0% |
| Outside Zone | 30 | 20.0% | $-13.20 | -44.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 187 | 23.5% | $-54.68 | -29.2% |
| sen_tips | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.65 | +9.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 stawell | 8 | 50.0% | +$5.48 | +68.5% |
| horsham | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.00 | +37.5% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 8 | 50.0% | +$0.71 | +8.9% |
| flemington | 26 | 19.2% | $-0.61 | -2.3% |
| moe | 10 | 20.0% | $-2.55 | -25.5% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| mornington | 18 | 16.7% | $-3.60 | -20.0% |
| bet365 hamilton | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.50 | -61.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| Tue | 27 | 22.2% | $-5.05 | -18.7% |
| Thu | 10 | 30.0% | $-7.70 | -77.0% |
| Fri | 24 | 41.7% | +$1.49 | +6.2% |
| Sat | 112 | 21.4% | $-28.87 | -25.8% |
| Sun | 14 | 14.3% | $-10.30 | -73.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.67 (-16.8% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-28 | flemington | Light Infantry Man | 19.00 | +$18.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Extragalactic | 4.40 | +$9.90 |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Recon | 8.50 | +$7.80 |
| 2026-04-20 | picklebet park wodonga | Tutto Finito | 7.00 | +$6.40 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Marffiano | 6.00 | +$6.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | ladbrokes geelong | Pentonville Road | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Kurakka | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | King Zephyr | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Oak Beach | 3.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Yes Yoshi | 4.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.