David Taggart

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 26.3% vs implied 26.5% (-0.2pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -21.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+1.7%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -3.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +11.8% (-15.1% → -3.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.9% (-14.5% → -6.6%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

26.3%

Avg Odds

5.57

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.11

ROI

-3.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.5%

Calibration Gap

-0.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	95	$-3.11	-3.3%
Minus best 1 bet	94	$-14.11	-15.0%
Minus best 2 bets	93	$-23.11	-24.8%
Minus best 5 bets	90	$-33.11	-36.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-21.0%

Prior 60d ROI

+1.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	29	27.6%	5.42	+$3.69	+12.7%
2026-04	39	30.8%	5.05	$-1.85	-4.7%
2026-05	25	20.0%	6.61	$-2.95	-11.8%
2026-06	2	0.0%	4.75	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	23	47.8%	+$4.19	+18.2%
3.0-5.0	40	27.5%	$-2.30	-5.7%
5.0-8.0	12	8.3%	$-7.00	-58.3%
8.0-15	13	15.4%	+$9.00	+69.2%
15+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 10 of 95 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	8	12.5%	$-4.90	-61.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	95	26.3%	$-3.11	-3.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rosehill	8	37.5%	$-0.15	-1.9%
warwick farm	6	33.3%	$-0.70	-11.7%
sandown	8	25.0%	$-1.30	-16.3%
echuca	5	20.0%	$-2.76	-55.2%
caulfield	13	23.1%	$-3.80	-29.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	4	50.0%	+$1.80	+45.0%
Wed	24	33.3%	+$2.70	+11.2%
Thu	5	40.0%	+$0.55	+11.0%
Sat	35	25.7%	+$7.40	+21.1%
Sun	27	14.8%	$-15.56	-57.6%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-27	flemington	Pop Award	12.00	+$11.00
2026-05-08	morphettville	Fringes	10.00	+$9.00
2026-04-22	canterbury	Cap Saint Martin	5.00	+$4.00
2026-03-15	grafton	Rich Star	4.00	+$3.00
2026-04-22	geelong	Soldier Boi	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-05	mudgee	Transactions	2.60	$-2.00
2026-03-07	stony creek	Saxon Blood	4.60	$-1.00
2026-03-15	yarra valley	Understudy	2.15	$-1.00
2026-05-27	caulfield heath	Prestar	3.50	$-1.00
2026-05-01	morphettville	Maracourt	18.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.