Dean Watling

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 40.0% beats market-implied 33.7% by +6.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 250% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 3 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -8.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +40.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +26.7% (+13.3% → +40.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.3% (-6.9% → -8.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Odds

7.01

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.00

ROI

+40.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-8.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.7%

Calibration Gap

+6.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	5	40.0%	7.01	+$2.00	+40.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.50	+50.0%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$4.50	+450.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 2	1	100.0%	+$0.50	+50.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	100.0%	+$4.50	+450.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 5 of 5 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	5	40.0%	+$2.00	+40.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	5	40.0%	+$2.00	+40.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.90 (+95.2% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-26	belmont	Chix	5.50	+$4.50
2026-05-30	scone	Flirtation	1.50	+$0.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-26	port macquarie	Wootton Way	2.60	$-1.00
2026-05-30	scone	Caledonian	23.00	$-1.00
2026-05-27	dennis bournes memorial h	Wootton Way	2.45	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.