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Gaurav Khosla
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (32 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 31.2% trails market-implied 34.9% by -3.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -32.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-10.3%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -22.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.1% (-24.2% → -22.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.1% (-17.7% → -16.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-7.05
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 32 | $-7.05 | -22.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 31 | $-10.85 | -35.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 30 | $-13.45 | -44.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 27 | $-18.15 | -67.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 9 | 44.4% | 5.06 | +$2.25 | +25.0% |
| 2026-04 | 10 | 20.0% | 3.71 | $-5.95 | -59.5% |
| 2026-05 | 13 | 30.8% | 3.04 | $-3.35 | -25.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 6 | 66.7% | +$0.70 | +11.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 44.4% | +$0.85 | +9.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 12 | 16.7% | $-3.60 | -30.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.35 | +67.5% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 3 of 32 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 3 | 66.7% | +$0.35 | +11.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 32 | 31.2% | $-7.05 | -22.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| darwin | 27 | 37.0% | $-2.05 | -7.6% |
| tennant creek | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Fri | 12 | 33.3% | $-1.65 | -13.7% |
| Sat | 17 | 35.3% | $-2.40 | -14.1% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | darwin | Miss Black Diamond | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-05-09 | darwin | Field Of Flutes | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-03-14 | darwin | Stormfront | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-05-09 | darwin | Ankle Rolex | 2.70 | +$1.70 |
| 2026-04-10 | darwin | Tigers Roar | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | darwin | Lady Fireball | 17.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-16 | tennant creek | Miss Boom | 1.85 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | darwin | Self Serve | 2.45 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | darwin | Anecdotal | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | darwin | I Loverain | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.