Glen Moore

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (25 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 36.0% trails market-implied 49.7% by -13.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +2.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-78.3%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -26.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +4.2% (-30.6% → -26.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.7% (-20.1% → -17.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

36.0%

Avg Odds

2.72

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-6.60

ROI

-26.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

49.7%

Calibration Gap

-13.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	25	$-6.60	-26.4%
Minus best 1 bet	24	$-10.40	-43.3%
Minus best 2 bets	23	$-11.40	-49.6%
Minus best 5 bets	20	$-14.05	-70.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+2.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-78.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	3	0.0%	2.04	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-04	6	16.7%	2.27	$-4.05	-67.5%
2026-05	13	46.2%	3.25	$-0.45	-3.5%
2026-06	3	66.7%	2.03	+$0.90	+30.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	13	53.8%	$-1.40	-10.8%
2.0-3.0	5	20.0%	$-3.00	-60.0%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	$-0.20	-4.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	66.7%	+$0.50	+16.7%
Rank 2	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$0.00	+0.0%
Rank 6+	2	50.0%	$-0.10	-5.0%

Based on 9 of 25 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	9	44.4%	$-1.60	-17.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	25	36.0%	$-6.60	-26.4%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pinjarra	22	31.8%	$-7.50	-34.1%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	25	36.0%	$-6.60	-26.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.60 (+60.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-11	pinjarra	Im Spiderman	4.80	+$3.80
2026-06-01	pinjarra (aus)	Eastbro Chrissy	2.00	+$1.00
2026-04-13	pinjarra	Im Spiderman	1.95	+$0.95
2026-06-01	pinjarra (aus)	Mcgee	1.90	+$0.90
2026-05-25	pinjarra	The Final Offer Nz	1.80	+$0.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-04	pinjarra	Our Robyn Hood	3.20	$-1.00
2026-04-13	pinjarra	Patriarch Nz	1.70	$-1.00
2026-05-18	pinjarra	Prince Of Tribeca	2.30	$-1.00
2026-05-18	pinjarra	Our Robyn Hood	2.35	$-1.00
2026-05-04	pinjarra	Miss Uneek	2.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.