Greg Hooper

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.8% vs implied 28.6% (+2.2pp). Picks track market expectations. 297% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -46.5% on 24 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -67.3%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+110.8%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -1.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw +21.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +29.1% (-7.3% → +21.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +9.1% (-10.2% → -1.1%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

30.8%

Avg Odds

4.83

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$5.65

ROI

+21.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-1.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.6%

Calibration Gap

+2.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	26	+$5.65	+21.7%
Minus best 1 bet	25	$-8.35	-33.4%
Minus best 2 bets	24	$-11.15	-46.5%
Minus best 5 bets	21	$-15.60	-74.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-67.3%

Prior 60d ROI

+110.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	6	33.3%	5.42	+$10.90	+181.7%
2026-07	7	57.1%	4.00	+$3.50	+50.0%
2026-08	11	18.2%	4.74	$-6.75	-61.4%
2026-09	2	0.0%	6.50	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	100.0%	+$3.30	+82.5%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.55	-38.8%
3.0-5.0	6	33.3%	+$0.90	+15.0%
5.0-8.0	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	100.0%	+$14.00	+1400.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	80.0%	+$5.00	+100.0%
Rank 2	7	42.9%	$-0.35	-5.0%
Rank 3	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	5	20.0%	+$10.00	+200.0%

Based on 26 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	21	38.1%	+$10.65	+50.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	26	30.8%	+$5.65	+21.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
northam	9	33.3%	+$11.00	+122.2%
belmont	10	40.0%	$-0.10	-1.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.65 (+55.0% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-17	northam	Flip The Pattys	15.00	+$14.00
2026-07-17	belmont	In Confidence	3.80	+$2.80
2026-07-22	northam	Delzee	3.10	+$2.10
2026-08-08	belmont	Cinque Stelle	2.45	+$1.45
2026-06-17	northam	Bosun	1.90	+$0.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-19	strathalbyn	Cosmic Eclipse	5.50	$-1.00
2026-06-24	northam	Peanut Butter	2.80	$-1.00
2026-08-26	northam	Official Business	2.15	$-1.00
2026-08-25	belmont	Hype Machine	12.00	$-1.00
2026-06-19	belmont	Like Clockwork	6.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.