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Harry White
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.1% trails market-implied 29.8% by -4.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -9.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-24.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Harry White is an independent Australian racing tipster operating primarily through theGreatTipOff platform, where he provides tips for midweek and country racing meetings. He is described as having a strong analytical approach and deep understanding of race form, with activity dating back to at least 2024. White also operates a boutique horse ownership/bloodstock business focused on purchasing yearlings and tried horses to make ownership affordable, creating a potential conflict of interest in his tipping.
Australia (likely NSW or Victoria based on track coverage)Independent tipster2 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Operates horse ownership/bloodstock business - monitor for horses he owns appearing in his selections
- No media employer identified - independent operator may have undisclosed stable connections
- Facebook page promotes yearling purchases and racing ownership - commercial interest in racing industry
Methodology: Form-based analytical approach with deep understanding of race form
Specialty: Midweek and country racing meetings, particularly NSW venues like Muswellbrook, Dubbo, and regional Victorian tracks
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @harrywhitetips (75 posts as of Oct 2025)
- Facebook page: harrywhitetips (470+ likes)
- theGreatTipOff platform - regular free tips contributor
Horse ownership / breeding
- Operates boutique horse ownership operation
- Purchases yearlings and tried horses for racing
- Markets ownership as affordable - potential syndication model
Public track-record claims
- Described as 'sharp and reliable tipster, delivering consistent results' (theGreatTipOff marketing copy, Oct 2024)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-05-31
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.2% (-19.8% → -18.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.2% (-19.2% → -17.9%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-68.85
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-17.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 370 | $-68.85 | -18.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 369 | $-80.85 | -21.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 368 | $-89.85 | -24.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 365 | $-115.85 | -31.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 70 | 27.1% | 4.35 | $-16.15 | -23.1% |
| 2026-04 | 131 | 25.2% | 5.28 | $-32.05 | -24.5% |
| 2026-05 | 158 | 24.1% | 4.60 | $-22.15 | -14.0% |
| 2026-06 | 11 | 27.3% | 5.40 | +$1.50 | +13.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 45 | 55.6% | $-3.90 | -8.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 87 | 39.1% | $-3.05 | -3.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 105 | 21.9% | $-19.90 | -19.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 85 | 5.9% | $-54.00 | -63.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 37 | 16.2% | +$23.00 | +62.2% |
| 15+ | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 36 | 38.9% | $-1.85 | -5.1% |
| Rank 2 | 16 | 18.8% | $-5.90 | -36.9% |
| Rank 3 | 7 | 28.6% | +$2.90 | +41.4% |
| Rank 4-5 | 12 | 25.0% | +$13.00 | +108.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 74 of 370 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 10 | 10.0% | $-4.50 | -45.0% |
| Outside Zone | 64 | 32.8% | +$9.65 | +15.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 370 | 25.1% | $-68.85 | -18.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| rosehill gardens | 10 | 40.0% | +$5.90 | +59.0% |
| kembla grange | 35 | 25.7% | +$5.30 | +15.1% |
| inverell | 8 | 50.0% | +$4.30 | +53.8% |
| wellington | 6 | 16.7% | +$4.00 | +66.7% |
| muswellbrook | 8 | 37.5% | +$2.65 | +33.1% |
| grafton | 16 | 37.5% | +$2.00 | +12.5% |
| sportsbet gawler | 7 | 14.3% | +$0.50 | +7.1% |
| corowa | 5 | 20.0% | +$0.50 | +10.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| quirindi | 14 | 14.3% | $-8.75 | -62.5% |
| hawkesbury | 22 | 22.7% | $-9.35 | -42.5% |
| scone | 16 | 12.5% | $-10.30 | -64.4% |
| gosford | 23 | 17.4% | $-13.30 | -57.8% |
| newcastle | 36 | 27.8% | $-13.95 | -38.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 53 | 30.2% | +$0.65 | +1.2% |
| Tue | 82 | 30.5% | $-13.35 | -16.3% |
| Wed | 7 | 42.9% | +$1.75 | +25.0% |
| Fri | 46 | 21.7% | $-15.50 | -33.7% |
| Sat | 162 | 22.8% | $-37.40 | -23.1% |
| Sun | 20 | 10.0% | $-5.00 | -25.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 9 settled, place rate 33.3%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.84 (-53.7% ROI) on 9 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-16 | kembla grange | Hush Hush | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-04-12 | wellington | Chandon Star | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | taree | Brilliant Knight | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | kembla grange | Common Goal | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | royal randwick | Prima Bella | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | thomas farms rc murray br | Sir Randolph | 6.00 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | sportsbet gawler | Elite Thunder | 2.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | rosehill gardens | Man Of Worth | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | grafton | Amarone | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | illawarra grange | Fabrice | 7.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.