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Heath Pope
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (42 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 4.8% trails market-implied 16.6% by -11.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -57.5%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-87.3%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -40.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -73.1%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -14.8% (-58.2% → -73.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.8% (-37.7% → -40.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-30.70
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-40.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
16.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 42 | $-30.70 | -73.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 41 | $-38.20 | -93.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 40 | $-40.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 37 | $-37.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 12 | 8.3% | 7.91 | $-9.20 | -76.7% |
| 2026-04 | 10 | 0.0% | 9.20 | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 20 | 5.0% | 11.34 | $-11.50 | -57.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.20 | -44.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 14 | 7.1% | $-5.50 | -39.3% |
| 15+ | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | +$5.50 | +183.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 9 of 42 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 14.3% | +$1.50 | +21.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 42 | 4.8% | $-30.70 | -73.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| murray bridge | 5 | 20.0% | +$3.50 | +70.0% |
| morphettville | 33 | 3.0% | $-30.20 | -91.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 42 | 4.8% | $-30.70 | -73.1% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-23 | murray bridge | Real Deluxe | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-03-27 | morphettville | Signature Scent | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-04 | oakbank | Prairie Flower | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | murray bridge | Fearless Freddy | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | oakbank | Kalmana | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | morphettville | Maisy | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | morphettville | Scandalize | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.