Howard Walter

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (22 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.3% trails market-implied 30.7% by -3.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -62.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-24.1%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -34.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -1.6% (-32.9% → -34.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.0% (-20.6% → -19.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

27.3%

Avg Odds

4.44

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.60

ROI

-34.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-19.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.7%

Calibration Gap

-3.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	22	$-7.60	-34.5%
Minus best 1 bet	21	$-11.10	-52.9%
Minus best 2 bets	20	$-12.35	-61.8%
Minus best 5 bets	17	$-15.40	-90.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-62.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-24.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	4	25.0%	5.28	$-2.40	-60.0%
2026-04	10	40.0%	4.12	+$0.55	+5.5%
2026-05	6	16.7%	3.77	$-3.75	-62.5%
2026-06	2	0.0%	6.35	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$1.30	+65.0%
2.0-3.0	5	60.0%	+$1.60	+32.0%
3.0-5.0	10	10.0%	$-5.50	-55.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	100.0%	+$1.25	+125.0%

Based on 6 of 22 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	5	20.0%	$-2.75	-55.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	22	27.3%	$-7.60	-34.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
doomben	6	16.7%	$-3.75	-62.5%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.49 (+49.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-27	warwick	Colleano	4.50	+$3.50
2026-04-14	doomben	Empress Aspen	2.25	+$1.25
2026-05-21	kilcoy	Outatick	2.25	+$1.25
2026-04-01	mackay	More Trouble	2.10	+$1.10
2026-04-27	warwick	Past Midnight	1.70	+$0.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-30	townsville	Keep On Running	13.00	$-1.00
2026-04-21	doomben	Fashionable	9.50	$-1.00
2026-03-09	warwick	Norty Forty	3.30	$-1.00
2026-04-14	doomben	Laridae	3.20	$-1.00
2026-04-07	eagle farm	Fasvara	3.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.