Ian Humphries

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (25 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 32.0% beats market-implied 26.8% by +5.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 209% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -38.5% on 23 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -12.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+50.3%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +2.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +32.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +9.8% (+22.8% → +32.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.6% (-0.5% → +2.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

32.0%

Avg Odds

5.58

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$8.15

ROI

+32.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+2.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.8%

Calibration Gap

+5.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	25	+$8.15	+32.6%
Minus best 1 bet	24	$-0.85	-3.5%
Minus best 2 bets	23	$-8.85	-38.5%
Minus best 5 bets	20	$-14.30	-71.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-12.9%

Prior 60d ROI

+50.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	8	0.0%	4.53	$-8.00	-100.0%
2026-04	10	50.0%	6.67	+$17.05	+170.5%
2026-05	4	50.0%	5.81	+$0.25	+6.2%
2026-06	3	33.3%	4.45	$-1.15	-38.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	66.7%	+$0.40	+13.3%
2.0-3.0	5	60.0%	+$2.35	+47.0%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	$-1.60	-32.0%
5.0-8.0	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	50.0%	+$15.00	+375.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	100.0%	+$2.55	+127.5%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 5 of 25 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	5	40.0%	$-0.45	-9.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	25	32.0%	+$8.15	+32.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
wagga	6	50.0%	+$14.85	+247.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Thu	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Sun	1	100.0%	+$9.00	+900.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-17	wagga	Love Shuck	10.00	+$9.00
2026-04-18	wagga	Love Shuck	9.00	+$8.00
2026-04-13	ballina	Dance Gavin Dance	3.40	+$2.40
2026-05-25	albury	With Strength	2.70	+$1.70
2026-04-16	canberra	The Stars Align	2.35	+$1.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-29	sapphire coast	Stormy Reign	2.70	$-1.00
2026-03-14	york	Prince Harrison	7.50	$-1.00
2026-06-03	wagga	Iroquai	6.00	$-1.00
2026-03-07	carrick	Hammering Away	6.50	$-1.00
2026-04-18	wagga	Masked Vision	3.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.