← Back to dashboard
John Kelton
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 19.5% trails market-implied 28.4% by -8.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +15.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-43.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Career professional punter, 15+ years. South Australian form analyst at racing.com, Twitter @eaglepunt. Pure-data approach; frames own markets from a family-built database.
South Australia (Adelaide)Racing.com SA form analyst — 'Get On SA'15 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns horses with trainer Will Clarken — split his Clarken-trained picks vs other picks to check for insider edge or bias
- Bred horses with Jake Stephens — same monitoring applies to any Stephens-trained tip
Methodology: Quantitative. Maintains a family-built race-form database. Frames his own markets (own price) and bets where bookmaker prices diverge from his line. Multi-source intelligence — combines public data with industry contacts.
Specialty: South Australian racing (Morphettville, Murray Bridge, Gawler, Strathalbyn)
Public footprint
- racing.com TV — SA form analyst
- Twitter @eaglepunt (~6.8k posts)
- Facebook racingdotcom segments
- ChampionBets podcast — featured as Career Pro Punter (Ep 163)
- TheGreatTipOff — public results dashboard
Horse ownership / breeding
- Iota Of Luck broodmare — bred Group 1 winner Alcopop (with Jake Stephens)
- Bella Bellucci broodmare
- Second To Nun — currently trained by Will Clarken
Industry connections
- Jake Stephens — co-bred Alcopop
- Will Clarken — current trainer of his racehorse Second To Nun
Public track-record claims
- Public TheGreatTipOff snapshot: '$100 → $1,310, 20 winners' (period unspecified, marketing copy)
- Self-described as making a 15+ year living from punting
Source: manual · last researched 2026-05-30
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -24.4% (+1.1% → -23.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -19.6% (-0.9% → -20.4%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-29.88
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-20.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 128 | $-29.88 | -23.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 127 | $-37.93 | -29.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 126 | $-45.33 | -36.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 123 | $-58.47 | -47.5% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 18 | 11.1% | 4.64 | $-9.91 | -55.1% |
| 2026-07 | 49 | 18.4% | 4.14 | $-13.05 | -26.6% |
| 2026-08 | 43 | 20.9% | 4.25 | $-11.88 | -27.6% |
| 2026-09 | 18 | 27.8% | 4.55 | +$4.96 | +27.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 9 | 33.3% | $-3.46 | -38.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 30 | 23.3% | $-11.47 | -38.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 48 | 22.9% | $-2.44 | -5.1% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 33 | 12.1% | $-4.51 | -13.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 71 | 26.8% | $-10.97 | -15.5% |
| Rank 2 | 26 | 7.7% | $-16.40 | -63.1% |
| Rank 3 | 12 | 8.3% | $-6.96 | -58.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 17 | 11.8% | $-2.60 | -15.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 50.0% | +$7.05 | +352.5% |
Based on 128 of 128 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 23 | 4.3% | $-17.96 | -78.1% |
| Outside Zone | 105 | 22.9% | $-11.92 | -11.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 128 | 19.5% | $-29.88 | -23.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 8 | 37.5% | $-0.38 | -4.7% |
| morphettville | 54 | 22.2% | $-6.43 | -11.9% |
| port augusta | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| morphettville parks | 59 | 16.9% | $-16.07 | -27.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.16 | +39.5% |
| Sat | 113 | 20.4% | $-26.04 | -23.0% |
| Sun | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 13 settled, place rate 53.8%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.33 (-17.9% ROI) on 13 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-11 | morphettville parks | Silver Chaos | 7.50 | +$8.05 |
| 2026-07-08 | morphettville | Prancing Fool | 7.00 | +$7.40 |
| 2026-09-05 | morphettville parks | Fast Tempo | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | morphettville parks | Stirrup Cup | 4.00 | +$4.10 |
| 2026-09-05 | morphettville parks | Chakado | 5.50 | +$4.04 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-20 | morphettville | Harsh | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | morphettville | Oak Park Maddison | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | morphettville | Sir Now | 2.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | morphettville parks | Brevitas | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | morphettville | Zoutrail | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.