Julie Rowland

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 11.1% trails market-implied 29.4% by -18.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -100.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+21.7%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -59.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -11.5% (-48.0% → -59.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.4% (-26.6% → -25.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

11.1%

Avg Odds

5.67

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-10.70

ROI

-59.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-25.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

29.4%

Calibration Gap

-18.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	18	$-10.70	-59.4%
Minus best 1 bet	17	$-14.20	-83.5%
Minus best 2 bets	16	$-16.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	13	$-13.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-100.0%

Prior 60d ROI

+21.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	6	33.3%	3.68	+$1.30	+21.7%
2026-04	5	0.0%	4.64	$-5.00	-100.0%
2026-05	7	0.0%	8.10	$-7.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	5	20.0%	$-2.20	-44.0%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	$-0.50	-10.0%
5.0-8.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	18	11.1%	$-10.70	-59.4%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
gawler	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Fri	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-31	balaklava	Rousing Refrain	4.50	+$3.50
2026-03-21	mount gambier	Allinthetiming	2.80	+$1.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-12	gawler	Winning All Round	1.80	$-1.00
2026-03-21	mount gambier	Durham	3.50	$-1.00
2026-03-31	balaklava	Jumbo Jet	2.30	$-1.00
2026-05-12	gawler	Flyway	13.00	$-1.00
2026-04-23	gawler	Fiabesca	6.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.