Kevin Casey

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

PROMISING

Small sample (21 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 52.4% beats market-implied 25.0% by +27.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +17.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw +91.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +22.4% (+68.5% → +91.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.3% (+20.0% → +17.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

52.4%

Avg Odds

4.61

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$19.10

ROI

+91.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+17.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

25.0%

Calibration Gap

+27.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	21	+$19.10	+91.0%
Minus best 1 bet	20	+$14.60	+73.0%
Minus best 2 bets	19	+$10.60	+55.8%
Minus best 5 bets	16	+$0.30	+1.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	4	25.0%	4.83	$-0.80	-20.0%
2026-04	15	66.7%	4.44	+$21.90	+146.0%
2026-05	2	0.0%	5.50	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	3	100.0%	+$4.00	+133.3%
3.0-5.0	8	62.5%	+$9.60	+120.0%
5.0-8.0	9	33.3%	+$6.50	+72.2%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 2 of 21 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	21	52.4%	+$19.10	+91.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	1	100.0%	+$2.10	+210.0%
Sun	1	100.0%	+$1.15	+115.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-07	hamilton	Corro	5.50	+$4.50
2026-04-25	narromine	Smart Scud	5.00	+$4.00
2026-04-20	muswellbrook	Saratoga Power	5.00	+$4.00
2026-04-04	randwick	Profoundly	4.80	+$3.80
2026-04-07	hamilton	Kamezali	3.50	+$2.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-20	swan hill	Western Lane	6.50	$-1.00
2026-04-20	muswellbrook	Ready And Lucky	3.80	$-1.00
2026-04-20	swan hill	Apple Eyes	7.50	$-1.00
2026-05-25	hamilton	The Mariner	6.00	$-1.00
2026-04-13	donald	Lethal Thoughts	3.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.