Lachlan Mosley

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-02 06:21 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (1 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 100.0% beats market-implied 44.6% by +55.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +124.0%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Odds

2.24

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.24

ROI

+124.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

44.6%

Calibration Gap

+55.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	1	100.0%	2.24	+$1.24	+124.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	100.0%	+$1.24	+124.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

(no source data)

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-04	balaklava	2. Serinite Illusion	2.24	+$1.24

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
No losses

Generated 2026-06-02 06:21 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.