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Luke Hovhanesian
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (59 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.7% trails market-implied 27.5% by -3.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.5% (-21.5% → -19.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.7% (-18.9% → -16.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-11.20
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 59 | $-11.20 | -19.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 58 | $-17.20 | -29.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 57 | $-22.70 | -39.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 54 | $-33.70 | -62.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 13 | 30.8% | 3.73 | $-3.55 | -27.3% |
| 2026-04 | 17 | 23.5% | 7.42 | $-0.10 | -0.6% |
| 2026-05 | 21 | 23.8% | 6.61 | $-3.75 | -17.9% |
| 2026-06 | 8 | 12.5% | 6.45 | $-3.80 | -47.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 60.0% | $-0.10 | -2.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 28.6% | $-5.30 | -37.9% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 19 | 21.1% | $-3.30 | -17.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 25.0% | +$6.50 | +54.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.05 | +1.3% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 100.0% | +$3.20 | +320.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 13 of 59 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 11 | 27.3% | $-2.75 | -25.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 59 | 23.7% | $-11.20 | -19.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| newcastle | 10 | 40.0% | +$2.45 | +24.5% |
| scone | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 26 | 34.6% | +$0.80 | +3.1% |
| Tue | 14 | 21.4% | $-3.60 | -25.7% |
| Thu | 9 | 11.1% | $-2.00 | -22.2% |
| Fri | 10 | 10.0% | $-6.40 | -64.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.24 (+24.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-23 | newcastle | Master Yoda | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | quirindi | Cooma Hut | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-03-30 | grafton | Full Regalia | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | quirindi | Piccaderro | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-06-01 | corowa | Forte Cheval | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-30 | grafton | Referees | 2.25 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | muswellbrook | Hot Chocks | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | ballina | Caramelfudgesundae | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | newcastle | Sister Daae | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | bathurst | Flying Giselle | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.