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Mark Hunter
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (20 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 10.0% trails market-implied 20.5% by -10.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +90.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-100.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -5.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +9.8% (-14.8% → -5.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.9% (-13.6% → -10.7%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
20.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 20 | $-1.00 | -5.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 19 | $-13.00 | -68.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 18 | $-18.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 15 | $-15.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 6 | 0.0% | 11.18 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-04 | 4 | 0.0% | 7.65 | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 10 | 20.0% | 7.46 | +$9.00 | +90.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 25.0% | +$2.00 | +50.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 20.0% | +$8.00 | +160.0% |
| 15+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 100.0% | +$5.00 | +500.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 4 of 20 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 100.0% | +$5.00 | +500.0% |
| Outside Zone | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 20 | 10.0% | $-1.00 | -5.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 9 | 11.1% | $-3.00 | -33.3% |
| flemington | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 20 | 10.0% | $-1.00 | -5.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.64 (+64.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-01 | bendigo | Von Hauke | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | caulfield | Hearcomesthestar | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | flemington | Moor Mumm | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | flemington | Mometz | 18.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | caulfield | Arabian Prince | 26.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | caulfield | Cafe Millenium | 8.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | flemington | Litzdeel | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.