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Mark Mathews
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (54 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 27.8% vs implied 26.6% (+1.2pp). Picks track market expectations. 64% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +27.8% on 52 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +149.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-43.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +32.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +74.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +12.1% (+62.4% → +74.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.3% (+28.1% → +32.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$40.25
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+32.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
26.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 54 | +$40.25 | +74.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 53 | +$27.35 | +51.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 52 | +$14.45 | +27.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 49 | $-16.75 | -34.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 21 | 19.0% | 5.20 | $-9.20 | -43.8% |
| 2026-05 | 33 | 33.3% | 5.10 | +$49.45 | +149.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -266.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 10 | 40.0% | +$1.45 | +14.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 25 | 36.0% | +$50.80 | +203.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 9 | 22.2% | +$3.00 | +33.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.55 | +7.9% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 50.0% | +$21.10 | +527.5% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.50 | +450.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | +$3.50 | +116.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 16 of 54 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.50 | +450.0% |
| Outside Zone | 15 | 33.3% | +$24.15 | +161.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 54 | 27.8% | +$40.25 | +74.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| mount gambier | 9 | 44.4% | +$27.70 | +307.8% |
| morphettville parks | 9 | 44.4% | +$25.80 | +286.7% |
| port augusta | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.20 | -2.9% |
| sportsbet gawler | 13 | 23.1% | $-1.15 | -8.8% |
| bordertown | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.00 | -62.5% |
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.90 | -86.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.95 | +13.6% |
| Fri | 32 | 21.9% | +$12.70 | +39.7% |
| Sat | 9 | 44.4% | +$25.80 | +286.7% |
| Sun | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.80 | +13.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.56 (+178.2% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-16 | morphettville parks | Invertational | 4.80 | +$12.90 |
| 2026-05-16 | morphettville parks | Royal Sway | 4.80 | +$12.90 |
| 2026-05-22 | mount gambier | Supreme Thunder | 4.80 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | mount gambier | Giddy Up Bankcheck | 4.20 | +$11.10 |
| 2026-05-22 | mount gambier | Naralinga | 4.00 | +$8.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-22 | mount gambier | Del Lirenza | 1.95 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | mount gambier | The Narrator | 1.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-16 | morphettville parks | Grinzinger Halo | 2.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-16 | morphettville parks | Romans Luck | 2.60 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | thomas farms rc murray br | Baroness Du Lac | 3.00 | $-2.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.