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Michael Dumesny
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 50.0% vs implied 51.6% (-1.6pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -12.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -7.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -6.9% (-0.6% → -7.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.1% (-11.1% → -12.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-12.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
51.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | 33.3% | 1.97 | $-1.45 | -48.3% |
| 2026-04 | 2 | 100.0% | 2.20 | +$2.40 | +120.0% |
| 2026-05 | 1 | 0.0% | 1.70 | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-06 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.23 | $-0.55 | -27.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 4 | 50.0% | $-1.00 | -25.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.40 | +46.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.55 | -27.5% |
Based on 2 of 8 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.55 | -27.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 8 | 50.0% | $-0.60 | -7.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| goulburn | 5 | 60.0% | +$0.95 | +19.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 50.0% | $-0.60 | -7.5% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-27 | goulburn | Krusty Krunch | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
| 2026-04-27 | goulburn | Rocksie Rock | 2.00 | +$1.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | goulburn | Happily | 1.55 | +$0.55 |
| 2026-06-01 | newcastle | Hav Fun With That | 1.45 | +$0.45 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-30 | goulburn | Eye Can Ear Amour | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | newcastle | Wat On Earth | 1.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | goulburn | Bam Bam Brook | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | newcastle | Next To Me Nz | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.