Michael Heaton

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 30.0% trails market-implied 33.8% by -3.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -42.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+17.8%) — trend is declining.

Since last weekly snapshot: +1 new bets · ROI: -6.5% (-9.2% → -15.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -4.2% (-10.5% → -14.7%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

30.0%

Avg Odds

3.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-14.10

ROI

-15.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.8%

Calibration Gap

-3.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	90	$-14.10	-15.7%
Minus best 1 bet	89	$-22.80	-25.6%
Minus best 2 bets	88	$-30.18	-34.3%
Minus best 5 bets	85	$-41.94	-49.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-42.4%

Prior 60d ROI

+17.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	6	16.7%	3.83	$-2.40	-40.0%
2026-04	34	41.2%	3.83	+$9.52	+28.0%
2026-05	42	23.8%	3.23	$-17.77	-42.3%
2026-06	8	25.0%	3.09	$-3.45	-43.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	12	33.3%	$-12.94	-107.8%
2.0-3.0	31	32.3%	$-12.74	-41.1%
3.0-5.0	34	35.3%	+$19.68	+57.9%
5.0-8.0	12	8.3%	$-7.10	-59.2%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	17	17.6%	$-16.75	-98.5%
Rank 2	8	37.5%	+$10.10	+126.2%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 29 of 90 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	29	20.7%	$-10.65	-36.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	90	30.0%	$-14.10	-15.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
york	13	46.2%	+$8.24	+63.4%
roebourne	6	16.7%	+$1.70	+28.3%
narrogin	6	33.3%	+$1.10	+18.3%
pinjarra scarpside	8	25.0%	$-0.90	-11.3%
carnarvon	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
albany	6	16.7%	$-2.40	-40.0%
kalgoorlie	20	40.0%	$-7.34	-36.7%
geraldton	7	14.3%	$-9.00	-128.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	22	36.4%	+$9.77	+44.4%
Thu	29	27.6%	$-10.78	-37.2%
Sat	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
Sun	34	29.4%	$-11.79	-34.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-24	roebourne	Percussion Prince	3.80	+$8.70
2026-04-06	york	Saucisson	4.20	+$7.38
2026-05-14	york	Space Academy	2.30	+$4.02
2026-05-10	kalgoorlie	Monty Zoomer	5.00	+$3.90
2026-04-06	york	Scream	2.60	+$3.84

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-30	geraldton	Southland	1.70	$-3.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Snippety Legend	2.30	$-3.00
2026-05-24	roebourne	Eight Ounces	3.30	$-3.00
2026-05-10	kalgoorlie	Lavish Charm	2.05	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Solar Chant	1.90	$-3.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.