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Michael Heaton
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.0% trails market-implied 26.7% by -6.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -41.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-20.4%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -23.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -28.1%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -5.3% (-22.8% → -28.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.4% (-21.1% → -23.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-32.35
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-23.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
26.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 115 | $-32.35 | -28.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 114 | $-42.35 | -37.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 113 | $-48.85 | -43.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 110 | $-61.85 | -56.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 31 | 22.6% | 4.41 | $-12.65 | -40.8% |
| 2026-07 | 42 | 23.8% | 5.00 | $-2.25 | -5.4% |
| 2026-08 | 29 | 20.7% | 6.11 | $-4.45 | -15.3% |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 0.0% | 4.63 | $-13.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 28.6% | $-3.70 | -52.9% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 29 | 41.4% | $-0.15 | -0.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 34 | 11.8% | $-18.00 | -52.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 28 | 14.3% | $-4.50 | -16.1% |
| 8.0-15 | 15 | 6.7% | $-4.00 | -26.7% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 40 | 32.5% | $-8.85 | -22.1% |
| Rank 2 | 17 | 29.4% | +$3.40 | +20.0% |
| Rank 3 | 25 | 8.0% | $-14.80 | -59.2% |
| Rank 4-5 | 24 | 8.3% | $-5.50 | -22.9% |
| Rank 6+ | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.60 | -73.3% |
Based on 115 of 115 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 18 | 16.7% | $-2.00 | -11.1% |
| Outside Zone | 97 | 20.6% | $-30.35 | -31.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 115 | 20.0% | $-32.35 | -28.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| pinjarra scarpside | 6 | 50.0% | +$14.20 | +236.7% |
| kununurra | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.30 | +41.2% |
| kalgoorlie | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.00 | -71.4% |
| pinjarra park | 13 | 23.1% | $-5.25 | -40.4% |
| junction | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| bunbury | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.00 | -75.0% |
| newman | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| belmont | 33 | 24.2% | $-7.70 | -23.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 6 | 50.0% | +$14.20 | +236.7% |
| Thu | 49 | 18.4% | $-25.15 | -51.3% |
| Sat | 53 | 18.9% | $-16.40 | -30.9% |
| Sun | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.00 | -71.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 72.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$4.80 (+43.6% ROI) on 11 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Sister Mary | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | kununurra | Vevinsky | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-08-29 | belmont | Main Act | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | belmont | Two Time Charlie | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Countersunk | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-05 | junction | Soaring Solo | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | northam | Tag Time | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | bunbury | Spinarella | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Suparoo | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | belmont | Morning Thunder | 1.65 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.