← Back to dashboard
Miles Pfitzner
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.3% trails market-implied 31.1% by -5.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -8.1%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-38.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Miles Pfitzner is a radio racing tipster and presenter at SEN (Sports Entertainment Network), particularly SENTrack and RSN. After spending 30 years in the racing and breeding industry, he joined SEN Track in 2020/2021 and became a permanent fixture in March 2021. He hosts multiple programs including "Fitzy's Form Lounge" on Saturdays and appears on RSN Saturday Raceday with on-course coverage from Melbourne tracks. He has a notable South Australian specialty, particularly Morphettville racing.
South AustraliaRadio racing presenter and tipster at SEN Track/RSN5 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Has 30 years background in racing and breeding industry prior to media career - specific ownership/breeding interests not publicly disclosed but warrants monitoring
- Betfair-affiliated content (SA Betfair Edge show) - potential commercial bias toward exchange betting
- Tips published via TheGreatTipOff.com HOT Bet system where tipster earns money from followers' winning bets
Methodology: Form-based analysis with value focus; tips across multiple meetings nationally but shows particular strength in SA racing
Specialty: South Australia racing, particularly Morphettville; also covers metropolitan racing across all states
Public footprint
- SEN Track radio - hosts Fitzy's Form Lounge (Saturdays 9-11:30am)
- RSN - Melbourne Form Preview Hour (Saturdays 8-9am), on-course analyst for RSN Saturday Raceday
- SEN Track Trackside show (Wednesday/Thursday mornings)
- Instagram: @milespfitzner (9,785+ followers)
- Twitter: @PfitznerMiles
- Tips published on TheGreatTipOff.com (585+ followers)
- Also works on broader SEN network for AFL and sport calling
Industry connections
- Works alongside Cam Luke, Mick Gannon, David Gately, Mark Hunter on SEN/RSN programs
- Partnered with Clare Lindop and Adam Mintz on SA Betfair Edge show
- Sponsored by/affiliated with Betfair for tipping content
Public track-record claims
- Turned $300 into $4,255 (marketing claim on TheGreatTipOff.com, May 2026 - unverified)
- Described as having 'four month winning streak' in November 2021 article
- Dubbed part of 'A-Team' with David Taggart for backing 'winner after winner' (SEN marketing, 2021)
- Featured as one of Australia's best performing tipsters on TheGreatTipOff podcast (Episode 31)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -30.8% (+1.9% → -28.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -26.0% (+0.1% → -25.9%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-62.70
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-25.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 217 | $-62.70 | -28.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 216 | $-70.20 | -32.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 215 | $-75.70 | -35.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 212 | $-87.20 | -41.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 45 | 20.0% | 5.68 | $-18.75 | -41.7% |
| 2026-07 | 84 | 25.0% | 4.60 | $-23.75 | -28.3% |
| 2026-08 | 50 | 24.0% | 4.78 | $-15.75 | -31.5% |
| 2026-09 | 38 | 34.2% | 4.46 | $-4.45 | -11.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 22 | 59.1% | +$0.45 | +2.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 77 | 32.5% | $-17.55 | -22.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 61 | 23.0% | $-9.10 | -14.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 26 | 7.7% | $-14.00 | -53.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 22 | 4.5% | $-13.50 | -61.4% |
| 15+ | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 119 | 35.3% | $-17.85 | -15.0% |
| Rank 2 | 46 | 26.1% | +$4.25 | +9.2% |
| Rank 3 | 12 | 0.0% | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 20 | 5.0% | $-17.10 | -85.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 20 | 0.0% | $-20.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 217 of 217 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 18 | 16.7% | +$2.50 | +13.9% |
| Outside Zone | 199 | 26.1% | $-65.20 | -32.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 217 | 25.3% | $-62.70 | -28.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| belmont | 30 | 40.0% | +$3.70 | +12.3% |
| pinjarra | 5 | 40.0% | +$1.00 | +20.0% |
| grafton | 6 | 33.3% | $-0.15 | -2.5% |
| eagle farm | 9 | 22.2% | $-0.40 | -4.4% |
| randwick | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.55 | -11.0% |
| bendigo | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.80 | -16.0% |
| gosford | 5 | 40.0% | $-1.75 | -35.0% |
| doomben | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.90 | -38.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hobart | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| flemington | 11 | 18.2% | $-5.30 | -48.2% |
| sandown | 19 | 26.3% | $-6.15 | -32.4% |
| sunshine coast | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.20 | -68.9% |
| geelong | 9 | 11.1% | $-7.20 | -80.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.90 | -58.0% |
| Wed | 32 | 37.5% | +$2.60 | +8.1% |
| Thu | 32 | 25.0% | $-10.00 | -31.2% |
| Fri | 25 | 36.0% | $-1.95 | -7.8% |
| Sat | 84 | 22.6% | $-25.75 | -30.7% |
| Sun | 39 | 15.4% | $-24.70 | -63.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.61 (-16.1% ROI) on 10 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-29 | caulfield | Saint George | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-06-27 | eagle farm | Yellow Brick | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-07-03 | belmont | Two Time Charlie | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-07-08 | belmont | Articole | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-07-21 | sandown | Hi Val | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-12 | rosehill | Mukhtalif | 2.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | belmont | Sisu Spirit | 3.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | eagle farm | Soft Love | 41.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | belmont | Olympic Park | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | northam | Peanut Butter | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.