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Miles Pfitzner
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.9% trails market-implied 31.2% by -5.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 122% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -10.8% on 141 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +104.5%) is materially better than the prior 60d (+12.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +31.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw +47.4%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +16.7% (+30.7% → +47.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +10.0% (+21.7% → +31.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$67.76
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+31.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 143 | +$67.76 | +47.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 142 | +$17.76 | +12.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 141 | $-15.24 | -10.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 138 | $-39.44 | -28.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 42 | 26.2% | 3.77 | $-6.74 | -16.0% |
| 2026-04 | 27 | 22.2% | 3.69 | $-8.21 | -30.4% |
| 2026-05 | 69 | 27.5% | 6.49 | +$84.61 | +122.6% |
| 2026-06 | 5 | 20.0% | 2.70 | $-1.90 | -38.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 11 | 18.2% | $-7.50 | -68.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 52 | 32.7% | $-6.40 | -12.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 42 | 26.2% | $-4.04 | -9.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 20 | 15.0% | $-1.30 | -6.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 10 | 20.0% | +$10.00 | +100.0% |
| 15+ | 8 | 25.0% | +$77.00 | +962.5% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 18 | 38.9% | +$3.11 | +17.3% |
| Rank 2 | 6 | 50.0% | +$3.16 | +52.7% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 6 | 33.3% | +$6.78 | +113.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 25.0% | +$6.00 | +150.0% |
Based on 38 of 143 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 36 | 38.9% | +$21.05 | +58.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 143 | 25.9% | +$67.76 | +47.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| morphettville | 15 | 26.7% | +$26.14 | +174.3% |
| sandown | 8 | 25.0% | +$5.10 | +63.7% |
| sunshine coast | 7 | 42.9% | +$2.14 | +30.6% |
| caulfield | 9 | 11.1% | +$1.00 | +11.1% |
| devonport | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.60 | -32.0% |
| ascot | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.15 | -69.2% |
| eagle farm | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 16 | 18.8% | $-5.41 | -33.8% |
| Thu | 11 | 27.3% | +$0.60 | +5.5% |
| Fri | 13 | 38.5% | +$0.66 | +5.1% |
| Sat | 63 | 17.5% | +$58.85 | +93.4% |
| Sun | 40 | 37.5% | +$13.06 | +32.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.59 (+59.2% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | doomben | Rothfire | 51.00 | +$50.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | morphettville | Wigmore | 34.00 | +$33.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | caulfield | Jimmy The Bear | 14.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | sandown | Milos Filos | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-03 | dubbo | Wave Breaker | 6.50 | +$6.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-28 | armidale | Cosmolicious | 3.00 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | caulfield | Green Fly | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | doomben | Vauban | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | ascot | Rey Magnerio | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | morphettville | Kalmana | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.