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Nick Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 27.4% vs implied 27.3% (+0.0pp). Picks track market expectations. 202% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -6.2% on 221 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +2.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +6.0%.
Bio & context
Nick Noonan is a Victorian-based racing analyst specializing in mounting yard assessment and form analysis, working with RSN Racing, Racing.com, and Betfair. Born into a racing family (father David was a stud manager and trainer in the early 90s), he combines traditional yard-watching skills with modern data analysis and Betfair market movements. He owns horses in partnership with family members, which creates a potential conflict of interest for some selections.
Victoria, AustraliaMounting Yard Analyst / Form Analyst4 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns horses with father and brother - monitor tips involving family-owned horses or their trainers
- Tasmanian racing specialty combined with horse ownership could create local connections - verify if family horses race in Tasmania
- Family background in racing industry (father was trainer/stud manager) may create undisclosed trainer relationships
Methodology: Hybrid approach combining mounting yard presentation analysis with form study, race replay analysis, and Betfair BSP/market movement data. Self-describes as value-focused, "generally against favourites" and seeks corporate vs. BSP price discrepancies. Blends visual assessment learned from father with punting form data.
Specialty: Tasmanian racing form (Racing.com), mounting yard analysis on Wednesdays and Saturdays
Public footprint
- Twitter: @NickoNoonan (joined September 2014)
- RSN Racing radio - mounting yard coverage from January 2023 onwards
- Racing.com - Tasmanian form analysis
- Betfair Hub contributor (joined August 2025)
- TheGreatTipOff profile (RSN Racing | TAS designation)
Horse ownership / breeding
- Owns horses in partnership with father David and brother Travis in family racing colors
- First family win at Echuca on Melbourne Cup day (year unspecified)
- Self-reported passion for travelling to watch family-owned horses race
Industry connections
- Father David Noonan (former stud manager and trainer, early 1990s)
- Brother Travis Noonan (race caller, RSN form analyst)
- Family connection to At Talaq (1986 Melbourne Cup winner)
- Tony Noonan (prominent Victorian trainer - different family branch, no verified connection to Nick)
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff profile shows "Turned $100 into $430" and "5 winners at geelong" (marketing claim on third-party aggregator, timeframe unspecified, not verified)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.0% (+3.0% → +6.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.1% (+0.4% → +2.5%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$13.36
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+2.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 223 | +$13.36 | +6.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 222 | $-1.64 | -0.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 221 | $-13.64 | -6.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 218 | $-38.04 | -17.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 58 | 29.3% | 5.55 | +$15.01 | +25.9% |
| 2026-04 | 74 | 27.0% | 5.43 | $-11.20 | -15.1% |
| 2026-05 | 81 | 28.4% | 5.97 | +$16.25 | +20.1% |
| 2026-06 | 10 | 10.0% | 9.73 | $-6.70 | -67.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 20 | 60.0% | +$2.53 | +12.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 45 | 37.8% | $-5.54 | -12.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 80 | 26.2% | +$2.37 | +3.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 34 | 17.6% | +$3.00 | +8.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 23 | 17.4% | +$16.00 | +69.6% |
| 15+ | 21 | 4.8% | $-5.00 | -23.8% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 20 | 50.0% | +$13.70 | +68.5% |
| Rank 2 | 8 | 25.0% | +$0.40 | +5.0% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 8 | 12.5% | +$1.50 | +18.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 48 of 223 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 9 | 22.2% | +$1.00 | +11.1% |
| Outside Zone | 39 | 28.2% | +$2.60 | +6.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 153 | 27.5% | $-18.74 | -12.2% |
| sen_tips | 70 | 27.1% | +$32.10 | +45.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 5 | 40.0% | +$14.40 | +288.0% |
| mornington | 11 | 36.4% | +$9.30 | +84.5% |
| ballarat | 6 | 33.3% | +$7.00 | +116.7% |
| ararat | 10 | 40.0% | +$3.92 | +39.2% |
| hobart | 31 | 29.0% | +$2.91 | +9.4% |
| warrnambool | 7 | 42.9% | +$1.50 | +21.4% |
| sale | 5 | 20.0% | $-0.20 | -4.0% |
| seymour | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.50 | -10.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| picklebet park werribee | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.80 | -35.0% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 8 | 12.5% | $-4.70 | -58.8% |
| launceston | 43 | 25.6% | $-8.25 | -19.2% |
| caulfield | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| horsham | 10 | 10.0% | $-12.05 | -120.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 48 | 22.9% | $-11.90 | -24.8% |
| Thu | 20 | 30.0% | $-3.50 | -17.5% |
| Fri | 43 | 25.6% | $-8.25 | -19.2% |
| Sat | 34 | 20.6% | +$16.80 | +49.4% |
| Sun | 78 | 33.3% | +$20.21 | +25.9% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.30 (+66.1% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | flemington | Corniche | 16.00 | +$15.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | bendigo | Navy Pilot | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | ballarat | Pico Bella | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-05-25 | mornington | Up And Under | 3.50 | +$8.40 |
| 2026-03-15 | swan hill | Second Fix | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Platino | 2.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Early Warning | 3.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | mornington | Neotropical | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Runaway Love | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | ararat | Flashlight | 4.80 | $-2.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.