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Paul Kelly
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (3 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 23.7% by +9.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -13.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -16.7%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +20.5% (-37.1% → -16.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.8% (-16.0% → -13.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.50
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-13.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.50 | +$1.50 | +150.0% |
| 2026-04 | 2 | 0.0% | 6.50 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.50 | +150.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
No rank data yet.
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.50 | -16.7% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-31 | ascot | Snitzalatte | 2.50 | +$1.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-24 | ascot | Trio | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | ascot | Soldanelle | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.