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Paul Sebastiani
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (2 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 35.9% by +14.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -11.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +30.0%.
Bio & context
Paul Sebastiani is a racing form analyst, presenter, and commentator employed by Sports Entertainment Network (SEN), where he provides racing tips on SEN Track. Based in the Greater Melbourne Area, he appears on regular racing programs including "Trackside" alongside other SEN analysts. He also works as a commentator for Blue Abroad (Carlton AFL content) and Cricket Australia's "The Surge," indicating a broader sports media background beyond racing.
Greater Melbourne Area, VictoriaRacing form analyst and presenter at SEN/SEN Track
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Possible undisclosed ownership in Baraqiel (Group 1 Moir Stakes winner, trained by Corstens/Larkin) - LinkedIn reference suggests personal interest but cannot confirm syndicate participation
- Monitor tips on horses trained by Leon & Troy Corstens or Will Larkin
Methodology: Form-based analysis - his published tips include detailed form assessments covering race fitness, track conditions, barrier draws, jockey bookings, and class comparisons
Specialty: Victorian racing, with tips regularly covering metropolitan tracks including Caulfield, Flemington, Moonee Valley, and Geelong
Public footprint
- Twitter: @paoloseb05 (joined April 2012, 3,577 followers)
- YouTube channel featuring SEN Track and Blue Abroad content
- Regular appearances on SEN Track's 'Trackside' program providing daily/weekend tips
- LinkedIn profile identifying as host, presenter and racing form analyst
- The Great Tip Off aggregator (listed as SEN | NSW tipster)
Horse ownership / breeding
- Possible ownership interest in Group 1 winner Baraqiel (trained by L & T Corstens & W Larkin) - LinkedIn post mentions 'Baraqiel saying goodbye to the working week' suggesting personal connection, though name does not appear in public ownership records which list Bennett Racing syndicate and multiple named owners
Industry connections
- Works regularly with SEN Track co-hosts including David Taggart, Sam Hyland, Miles Pfitzner, and Mick Gannon
Public track-record claims
- The Great Tip Off profile shows 'Turned $100 into $1,100' with '1 winners' - appears to be aggregator-generated marketing claim based on limited sample
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +17.0% (+13.0% → +30.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -9.1% (-2.3% → -11.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$0.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-11.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
35.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.80 | +$0.60 | +30.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.60 | +160.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.60 | +30.0% |
Based on 2 of 2 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.60 | +30.0% |
By source
(no source data)
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sun | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.60 | +30.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.31 (+31.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-30 | echuca | Presscode | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-30 | echuca | Of The View | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.