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Ric McIntosh
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.3% trails market-implied 31.3% by -6.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Since last weekly snapshot: +1 new bets · ROI: +2.6% (-24.7% → -22.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.9% (-21.8% → -19.9%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-34.04
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-19.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 154 | $-34.04 | -22.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 153 | $-42.59 | -27.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 152 | $-49.59 | -32.6% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 149 | $-64.59 | -43.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 22 | 27.3% | 4.06 | $-1.32 | -6.0% |
| 2026-04 | 52 | 34.6% | 3.66 | +$0.38 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05 | 72 | 16.7% | 4.70 | $-36.95 | -51.3% |
| 2026-06 | 8 | 37.5% | 3.62 | +$3.85 | +48.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 16 | 56.2% | +$3.26 | +20.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 44 | 36.4% | $-8.68 | -19.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 57 | 17.5% | $-17.62 | -30.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 21 | 14.3% | $-3.00 | -14.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 15 | 6.7% | $-7.00 | -46.7% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 16 | 25.0% | $-6.80 | -42.5% |
| Rank 2 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$4.00 | +100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 5 | 20.0% | +$2.00 | +40.0% |
Based on 38 of 154 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 37 | 16.2% | $-12.80 | -34.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 154 | 25.3% | $-34.04 | -22.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 stawell | 8 | 50.0% | +$11.27 | +140.9% |
| bet365 park kyneton | 7 | 57.1% | +$6.67 | +95.3% |
| bet365 swan hill | 16 | 31.2% | +$1.45 | +9.1% |
| avoca | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.28 | +4.0% |
| sportsbet sandown lakeside | 8 | 12.5% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| kerang | 7 | 28.6% | $-1.90 | -27.1% |
| bet365 mildura | 7 | 28.6% | $-2.65 | -37.9% |
| bet365 seymour | 7 | 28.6% | $-3.97 | -56.7% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 terang | 7 | 28.6% | $-4.84 | -69.1% |
| donald | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| bendigo | 23 | 21.7% | $-8.35 | -36.3% |
| warrnambool | 27 | 25.9% | $-9.45 | -35.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 18 | 16.7% | $-10.55 | -58.6% |
| Wed | 18 | 38.9% | $-1.05 | -5.8% |
| Thu | 22 | 36.4% | +$2.77 | +12.6% |
| Fri | 39 | 23.1% | $-2.03 | -5.2% |
| Sat | 13 | 15.4% | $-7.90 | -60.8% |
| Sun | 44 | 22.7% | $-15.28 | -34.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.22 (+64.4% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-17 | bet365 stawell | Eismond | 3.60 | +$8.55 |
| 2026-05-31 | sportsbet sandown lakesid | Ten Commandments | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | bet365 swan hill | Vegas Jack | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | bet365 swan hill | Baie De Seine | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | bet365 stawell | Krasnoludek | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-19 | bet365 terang | Adjudicate | 2.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | bet365 swan hill | Flashlight | 2.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-26 | bet365 seymour | Kyle | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | bet365 terang | Fabalot | 2.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | bendigo | Lady Of Lubeck | 3.40 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.