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Ryan Phelan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 50.0% vs implied 50.8% (-0.8pp). Picks track market expectations. 235% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -16.9% on 16 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -15.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+65.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +11.1%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-6.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
50.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 18 | +$2.00 | +11.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 17 | $-0.40 | -2.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 16 | $-2.70 | -16.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 13 | $-6.80 | -52.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 4 | 75.0% | 2.51 | +$4.20 | +105.0% |
| 2026-07 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.52 | $-0.30 | -15.0% |
| 2026-08 | 8 | 37.5% | 2.23 | $-2.55 | -31.9% |
| 2026-09 | 4 | 50.0% | 2.20 | +$0.65 | +16.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 9 | 55.6% | $-1.00 | -11.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 25.0% | $-1.80 | -45.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 5 | 60.0% | +$4.80 | +96.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 11 | 63.6% | +$2.60 | +23.6% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.90 | -22.5% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 33.3% | +$0.30 | +10.0% |
Based on 18 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 18 | 50.0% | +$2.00 | +11.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 18 | 50.0% | +$2.00 | +11.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| shepparton | 16 | 50.0% | +$2.30 | +14.4% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 18 | 50.0% | +$2.00 | +11.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.73 (+73.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-01 | shepparton | Tara Victory | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
| 2026-06-30 | shepparton | Lather In Gold | 3.30 | +$2.30 |
| 2026-06-23 | shepparton | Major Eastwood | 3.10 | +$2.10 |
| 2026-08-18 | shepparton | Aussie Jay Mac Nz | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-06-30 | shepparton | The Trawler | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-23 | shepparton | Very Tempting | 1.85 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | shepparton | Bay Of Fires | 1.16 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | echuca | Clives Girl | 1.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | shepparton | Delightful Reyna | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | shepparton | So Skeptical | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-14 06:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.