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Rylie Morgan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 31.6% vs implied 32.7% (-1.1pp). Picks track market expectations.
Bio & context
Rylie Morgan is a Western Australian racing presenter, producer, and tipster employed by Racing WA and featured across multiple platforms including Racing.com, 7Plus, and SEN Turf. Self-taught after finishing school with no family racing ties, Morgan started posting free WA racing tips on Twitter, developed a following, and transitioned into professional media work approximately 4+ years ago while completing university studies.
Western AustraliaRacing WA TV Presenter & Producer; SEN Turf analyst4 yrs
Methodology: Balanced mix of data analysis, speed maps, and replay watching with focus on race shape and how it suits certain horses; identifies trial watching as a key edge; emphasizes value-seeking in markets; acknowledges stronger proficiency in sprint/shorter-course races versus middle-distance and staying races
Specialty: WA racing specialist; particularly stronger on sprint/shorter-course races
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @ryliedotmorgan (joined March 2015)
- Racing WA TV - presenter and race-day producer
- Racing.com - WA tipster
- 7Plus - presenter
- SEN Turf - analyst on Inside Running (Saturday mornings, 8am) with Darren McAullay and Terry Leighton
- The Races WA Podcast - guest appearances
- Sports Breakfast (radio) - regular racing expert guest providing tips
Industry connections
- Darren McAullay (co-host on Inside Running)
- Terry Leighton (co-host on Inside Running)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.8% (-17.3% → -14.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.5% (-16.9% → -14.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-46.04
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-14.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
32.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 316 | $-46.04 | -14.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 315 | $-55.64 | -17.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 314 | $-63.14 | -20.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 311 | $-78.64 | -25.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 45 | 35.6% | 4.00 | +$14.72 | +32.7% |
| 2026-04 | 145 | 25.5% | 3.69 | $-51.75 | -35.7% |
| 2026-05 | 104 | 36.5% | 3.94 | $-10.60 | -10.2% |
| 2026-06 | 22 | 40.9% | 3.90 | +$1.59 | +7.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 36 | 80.6% | +$14.24 | +39.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 97 | 38.1% | $-13.08 | -13.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 117 | 24.8% | $-10.20 | -8.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 50 | 8.0% | $-29.50 | -59.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 13 | 7.7% | $-4.50 | -34.6% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 26 | 50.0% | +$1.29 | +5.0% |
| Rank 2 | 19 | 21.1% | $-3.00 | -15.8% |
| Rank 3 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.70 | -34.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 59 of 316 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 51 | 35.3% | $-4.41 | -8.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 316 | 31.6% | $-46.04 | -14.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| kalgoorlie | 12 | 75.0% | +$6.05 | +50.4% |
| pinjarra scarpside | 24 | 33.3% | +$2.34 | +9.8% |
| belmont | 57 | 35.1% | +$1.71 | +3.0% |
| northam | 15 | 33.3% | $-2.90 | -19.3% |
| port hedland | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.80 | -63.3% |
| pinjarra park | 12 | 25.0% | $-4.00 | -33.3% |
| albany | 37 | 29.7% | $-7.00 | -18.9% |
| ascot | 123 | 29.3% | $-19.15 | -15.6% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 15 | 26.7% | +$2.70 | +18.0% |
| Wed | 86 | 26.7% | $-21.49 | -25.0% |
| Thu | 49 | 34.7% | $-3.76 | -7.7% |
| Fri | 30 | 36.7% | $-2.89 | -9.6% |
| Sat | 93 | 35.5% | +$3.60 | +3.9% |
| Sun | 43 | 27.9% | $-24.20 | -56.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 87.5%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.90 (+48.8% ROI) on 8 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Jigsaw | 3.70 | +$9.60 |
| 2026-03-14 | ascot | Noble Connection | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-04-27 | pinjarra scarpside | Godless Storm | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-03-25 | belmont | Dixie Doo | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | albany | Uni Queen | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | True Player | 2.35 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Maria Lucia | 3.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | geraldton | Archenemy | 3.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | Prince Epaulette | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | Enticing | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.