Sam Lyons

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.6% vs implied 30.9% (-0.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -21.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+6.4%) — trend is declining.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.9% (-18.8% → -14.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.5% (-16.6% → -14.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

30.6%

Avg Odds

4.09

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-9.26

ROI

-14.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.9%

Calibration Gap

-0.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	62	$-9.26	-14.9%
Minus best 1 bet	61	$-13.26	-21.7%
Minus best 2 bets	60	$-17.22	-28.7%
Minus best 5 bets	57	$-27.62	-48.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-21.2%

Prior 60d ROI

+6.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	30	33.3%	3.75	$-5.70	-19.0%
2026-05	32	28.1%	4.41	$-3.56	-11.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	85.7%	+$6.04	+86.3%
2.0-3.0	13	46.2%	+$1.50	+11.5%
3.0-5.0	26	23.1%	$-3.80	-14.6%
5.0-8.0	11	9.1%	$-8.00	-72.7%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	50.0%	$-0.35	-17.5%
Rank 2	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 5 of 62 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	4	25.0%	$-2.35	-58.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	62	30.6%	$-9.26	-14.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bet365 echuca	16	43.8%	+$2.23	+13.9%
ladbrokes geelong	7	28.6%	+$0.31	+4.4%
bet365 park kilmore	8	25.0%	$-0.20	-2.5%
donald	6	33.3%	$-1.05	-17.5%
mornington	8	25.0%	$-2.40	-30.0%
bet365 stawell	5	20.0%	$-3.35	-67.0%
bet365 swan hill	8	25.0%	$-4.20	-52.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	21	28.6%	$-3.27	-15.6%
Tue	22	27.3%	$-7.65	-34.8%
Thu	12	41.7%	+$1.35	+11.2%
Fri	7	28.6%	+$0.31	+4.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.10 (+10.3% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-04	bet365 park kilmore	Come Along Jeffrey	5.00	+$4.00
2026-05-01	ladbrokes geelong	Fenestella	1.85	+$3.96
2026-05-04	bet365 park kilmore	Miss Deceiver	4.80	+$3.80
2026-05-11	bet365 echuca	Till Queen	4.40	+$3.40
2026-04-21	bet365 swan hill	Maximillius	4.20	+$3.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-04	bet365 park kilmore	Cumulate	3.20	$-3.00
2026-04-21	bet365 swan hill	Got Out The Fence	5.00	$-3.00
2026-04-14	donald	Allinthetiming	3.10	$-1.00
2026-04-16	bet365 echuca	Shaw Can Fly	4.20	$-1.00
2026-04-28	mornington	Terrax	4.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.