Scott Embry

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 30.2% trails market-implied 34.3% by -4.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -3.4% (-13.3% → -16.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.4% (-13.2% → -15.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

126

Wins

Win Rate

30.2%

Avg Odds

3.78

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-21.10

ROI

-16.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

34.3%

Calibration Gap

-4.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	126	$-21.10	-16.7%
Minus best 1 bet	125	$-35.10	-28.1%
Minus best 2 bets	124	$-41.10	-33.1%
Minus best 5 bets	121	$-52.02	-43.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-22.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-10.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	18	22.2%	3.51	$-3.57	-19.8%
2026-04	41	26.8%	4.00	$-2.40	-5.9%
2026-05	67	34.3%	3.71	$-15.13	-22.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	17	70.6%	+$0.85	+5.0%
2.0-3.0	50	32.0%	$-15.25	-30.5%
3.0-5.0	35	20.0%	$-9.70	-27.7%
5.0-8.0	16	12.5%	$-4.00	-25.0%
8.0-15	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
15+	1	100.0%	+$14.00	+1400.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	17	41.2%	$-2.45	-14.4%
Rank 2	5	20.0%	$-1.80	-36.0%
Rank 4-5	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 28 of 126 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	27	29.6%	$-9.25	-34.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	126	30.2%	$-21.10	-16.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albany	6	33.3%	$-0.50	-8.3%
broome	6	33.3%	$-0.85	-14.2%
york	6	33.3%	$-1.98	-33.0%
pinjarra scarpside	8	25.0%	$-2.85	-35.6%
pinjarra park	7	28.6%	$-3.05	-43.6%
ascot	61	27.9%	$-5.67	-9.3%
belmont	32	34.4%	$-6.20	-19.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	47	25.5%	$-6.40	-13.6%
Thu	12	33.3%	$-2.48	-20.7%
Sat	67	32.8%	$-12.22	-18.2%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.72 (-18.0% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-22	ascot	Mandible Magic	15.00	+$14.00
2026-03-14	ascot	Urquharts Bluff	7.00	+$6.00
2026-05-14	york	Space Academy	2.30	+$4.02
2026-05-14	york	Crows	5.00	+$4.00
2026-04-16	albany	Gingers Sister	3.90	+$2.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-18	ascot	Repossession	2.30	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Solar Chant	1.90	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Yalda Night	2.80	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Forever Elite	2.70	$-3.00
2026-04-11	ascot	Cessation	3.90	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.