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Scott McDonell
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 17.6% trails market-implied 33.8% by -16.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -31.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -59.7%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.7% (-63.5% → -59.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.1% (-36.0% → -31.9%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-20.30
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-31.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 34 | $-20.30 | -59.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 33 | $-23.30 | -70.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 32 | $-24.65 | -77.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 29 | $-27.65 | -95.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 6 | 50.0% | 2.90 | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 0.0% | 3.63 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 21 | 14.3% | 4.29 | $-13.30 | -63.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 40.0% | $-2.20 | -44.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 33.3% | $-2.10 | -23.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 13 | 7.7% | $-9.00 | -69.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 5 | 40.0% | +$1.35 | +27.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 10 of 34 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 9 | 22.2% | $-2.65 | -29.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 34 | 17.6% | $-20.30 | -59.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| alice springs | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.65 | -73.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 25.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.76 (-68.9% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-18 | barcaldine | Call Out | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | mount gambier | Drumlargen | 2.35 | +$1.35 |
| 2026-05-18 | barcaldine | Little Cointreau | 2.35 | +$1.35 |
| 2026-03-16 | kilcoy | Sir Memphis | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-03-26 | cranbourne | Impulsive Reaction | 1.45 | +$0.45 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-30 | northam | Macho Arquero | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Rising Water | 3.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | stableline sky heights st | A Diva | 1.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | pakenham | Just Jenni | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | pakenham | Olivia Rose | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.