Shane Jackson

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.2% trails market-implied 38.2% by -20.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -58.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

18.2%

Avg Odds

3.45

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-6.40

ROI

-58.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

38.2%

Calibration Gap

-20.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	11	$-6.40	-58.2%
Minus best 1 bet	10	$-8.40	-84.0%
Minus best 2 bets	9	$-9.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	6	$-6.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	11	18.2%	3.45	$-6.40	-58.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.40	-20.0%
2.0-3.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$1.00	+50.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	1	100.0%	+$2.00	+200.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 3 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	3	33.3%	+$0.00	+0.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	11	18.2%	$-6.40	-58.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
warrnambool	8	12.5%	$-6.40	-80.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	3	33.3%	$-1.40	-46.7%
Wed	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Thu	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Sun	3	33.3%	+$0.00	+0.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.55 (+54.6% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-31	sportsbet sandown lakesid	Sing For Peace	3.00	+$2.00
2026-05-05	warrnambool	Stern Idol	1.60	+$0.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-06	warrnambool	Point Nepean	2.20	$-1.00
2026-05-07	warrnambool	Raise The Note	11.00	$-1.00
2026-05-05	warrnambool	Ongatiti	2.50	$-1.00
2026-05-05	warrnambool	Mr Waterville	5.00	$-1.00
2026-05-31	sportsbet sandown lakesid	Highland Blaze	2.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.