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Shayne Montgomery
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (42 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.2% trails market-implied 31.8% by -5.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -41.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-15.6%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw -26.2%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -17.5% (-8.7% → -26.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -8.2% (-10.8% → -19.0%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-11.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-19.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 42 | $-11.00 | -26.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 41 | $-17.00 | -41.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 40 | $-19.60 | -49.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 37 | $-25.30 | -68.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 13 | 23.1% | 3.47 | $-5.70 | -43.8% |
| 2026-04 | 12 | 33.3% | 4.35 | +$1.80 | +15.0% |
| 2026-05 | 15 | 26.7% | 3.99 | $-5.10 | -34.0% |
| 2026-06 | 2 | 0.0% | 5.10 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 60.0% | +$0.10 | +2.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 35.7% | $-1.90 | -13.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.20 | -2.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 15 | 6.7% | $-8.00 | -53.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.50 | +50.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 100.0% | +$2.20 | +220.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 6 of 42 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.30 | -21.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 42 | 26.2% | $-11.00 | -26.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| warwick farm | 6 | 50.0% | +$2.00 | +33.3% |
| kembla grange | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.40 | -56.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 1 | 100.0% | +$6.00 | +600.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-15 | orange | A Boy Named Soo | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-03-26 | muswellbrook | Miss Busslinger | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-05-19 | warwick farm | So Suave | 3.20 | +$2.20 |
| 2026-05-05 | warwick farm | Superfabulistic | 2.90 | +$1.90 |
| 2026-04-28 | kembla grange | Katoto | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-01 | warwick farm | Shirvington | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | kembla grange | Doradus | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | warwick farm | Supermassive | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Hillbilly Hippie | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Rentessis | 2.40 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.