Sky Racing - Belinda Smith

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.0% trails market-implied 33.7% by -7.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -25.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -3.9% (-21.4% → -25.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.7% (-19.5% → -21.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

100

Wins

Win Rate

26.0%

Avg Odds

4.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-25.28

ROI

-25.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.7%

Calibration Gap

-7.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	100	$-25.28	-25.3%
Minus best 1 bet	99	$-29.68	-30.0%
Minus best 2 bets	98	$-33.88	-34.6%
Minus best 5 bets	95	$-44.08	-46.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-29.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-23.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	53	22.6%	4.40	$-18.72	-35.3%
2026-04	19	36.8%	3.37	+$1.59	+8.4%
2026-05	28	25.0%	4.28	$-8.15	-29.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	18	50.0%	$-2.96	-16.4%
2.0-3.0	19	31.6%	$-5.32	-28.0%
3.0-5.0	35	25.7%	+$0.40	+1.1%
5.0-8.0	19	10.5%	$-8.40	-44.2%
8.0-15	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	6	16.7%	$-4.18	-69.7%
Rank 2	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$2.90	+145.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 14 of 100 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	12	16.7%	$-5.28	-44.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	100	26.0%	$-25.28	-25.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
grafton	13	38.5%	+$2.91	+22.4%
tamworth	7	28.6%	+$0.64	+9.1%
ballina	5	40.0%	+$0.49	+9.8%
taree	26	38.5%	$-0.29	-1.1%
port macquarie	34	20.6%	$-14.03	-41.3%
armidale	15	0.0%	$-15.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	28	14.3%	$-19.48	-69.6%
Tue	33	33.3%	$-4.53	-13.7%
Wed	6	33.3%	+$0.72	+12.0%
Fri	15	13.3%	$-7.36	-49.1%
Sun	18	38.9%	+$5.37	+29.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.28 (+27.7% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-05	taree	Silver Tempest	5.40	+$4.40
2026-04-09	tamworth	Hulu	5.20	+$4.20
2026-05-27	port macquarie	Youwroteuponit	4.90	+$3.90
2026-03-14	grafton	Why Wait	4.20	+$3.20
2026-03-14	grafton	Pressalong	4.10	+$3.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-18	port macquarie	Lovecats	2.74	$-1.00
2026-05-27	port macquarie	Rockbarton Marshal	3.55	$-1.00
2026-03-29	grafton	Gaylord	3.95	$-1.00
2026-03-29	grafton	Referees	2.20	$-1.00
2026-03-12	armidale	Bundoran	2.42	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.