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Sky Racing - Ben Walker
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.8% trails market-implied 40.2% by -12.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -31.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-8.0%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +0.7% (-17.0% → -16.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.8% (-16.2% → -15.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-24.63
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-15.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
40.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 151 | $-24.63 | -16.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 150 | $-35.63 | -23.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 149 | $-43.83 | -29.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 146 | $-58.73 | -40.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 26 | 30.8% | 3.48 | $-7.69 | -29.6% |
| 2026-04 | 65 | 27.7% | 4.18 | $-0.40 | -0.6% |
| 2026-05 | 44 | 31.8% | 4.23 | $-6.29 | -14.3% |
| 2026-06 | 16 | 12.5% | 3.73 | $-10.25 | -64.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 39 | 38.5% | $-16.26 | -41.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 45 | 35.6% | $-6.62 | -14.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 32 | 15.6% | $-11.05 | -34.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 19 | 21.1% | +$4.10 | +21.6% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 18.2% | +$10.20 | +92.7% |
| 15+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 20 | 35.0% | $-6.55 | -32.8% |
| Rank 2 | 8 | 25.0% | +$1.80 | +22.5% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.25 | -6.2% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 38 of 151 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 25.0% | +$1.20 | +30.0% |
| Outside Zone | 34 | 26.5% | $-12.20 | -35.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 151 | 27.8% | $-24.63 | -16.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| wellington | 7 | 42.9% | +$6.62 | +94.6% |
| cowra | 8 | 50.0% | +$3.20 | +40.0% |
| narromine | 7 | 57.1% | +$1.74 | +24.9% |
| scone | 7 | 42.9% | +$1.65 | +23.6% |
| newcastle | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.75 | +12.5% |
| tamworth | 16 | 18.8% | +$0.54 | +3.4% |
| warren | 5 | 40.0% | $-1.34 | -26.8% |
| parkes | 8 | 25.0% | $-1.40 | -17.5% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bathurst | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.01 | -66.8% |
| quirindi | 14 | 28.6% | $-4.20 | -30.0% |
| moree | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| muswellbrook | 15 | 13.3% | $-7.71 | -51.4% |
| dubbo | 23 | 26.1% | $-8.28 | -36.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 22 | 31.8% | $-0.89 | -4.0% |
| Tue | 20 | 25.0% | $-6.07 | -30.3% |
| Fri | 40 | 17.5% | $-8.47 | -21.2% |
| Sat | 11 | 27.3% | $-5.35 | -48.6% |
| Sun | 58 | 34.5% | $-3.85 | -6.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.25 (+6.4% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-09 | tamworth | King Kikau | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-04-12 | wellington | Chandon Star | 9.20 | +$8.20 |
| 2026-04-16 | orange | A Boy Named Soo | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | muswellbrook | Think Back | 5.70 | +$4.70 |
| 2026-05-02 | dubbo | Zealands Princess | 5.20 | +$4.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-22 | orange | Instead | 2.48 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | newcastle | General Soho | 18.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | dubbo | Mrs Bull | 1.12 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | dubbo | Green Pineapple | 7.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | muswellbrook | Third Base | 2.52 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.