Sky Racing - Chris Barsby

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 40.6% trails market-implied 62.7% by -22.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -38.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-1.1%) — trend is declining.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.7% (-18.6% → -15.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.4% (-17.5% → -15.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

133

Wins

Win Rate

40.6%

Avg Odds

2.27

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-21.13

ROI

-15.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

62.7%

Calibration Gap

-22.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	133	$-21.13	-15.9%
Minus best 1 bet	132	$-27.93	-21.2%
Minus best 2 bets	131	$-32.63	-24.9%
Minus best 5 bets	128	$-42.18	-33.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-38.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-1.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	38	39.5%	2.08	$-11.39	-30.0%
2026-04	42	47.6%	2.73	+$10.51	+25.0%
2026-05	44	38.6%	2.25	$-13.27	-30.2%
2026-06	9	22.2%	1.01	$-6.98	-77.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	76	44.7%	$-31.48	-41.4%
2.0-3.0	26	42.3%	+$1.60	+6.2%
3.0-5.0	24	29.2%	+$2.25	+9.4%
5.0-8.0	5	40.0%	+$8.50	+170.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	66.7%	+$1.06	+35.3%
Rank 2	6	50.0%	+$2.29	+38.2%
Rank 3	3	66.7%	+$2.41	+80.3%
Rank 4-5	5	20.0%	$-3.64	-72.8%
Rank 6+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

Based on 22 of 133 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	22	36.4%	$-2.88	-13.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	133	40.6%	$-21.13	-15.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
redcliffe	46	39.1%	+$1.35	+2.9%
albion park	87	41.4%	$-22.48	-25.8%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	15	46.7%	$-0.70	-4.7%
Tue	23	56.5%	+$5.92	+25.7%
Thu	32	21.9%	$-19.85	-62.0%
Fri	50	44.0%	$-0.92	-1.8%
Sat	13	38.5%	$-5.58	-42.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.62 (-31.0% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-10	albion park	Natty Pagger	7.80	+$6.80
2026-04-13	redcliffe	Aladdin Sane	5.70	+$4.70
2026-05-20	redcliffe	Littlemickey	4.40	+$3.40
2026-05-29	redcliffe	Doolittle Doozzie	4.30	+$3.30
2026-04-13	redcliffe	A Perfect Dance	3.85	+$2.85

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-26	albion park	Queen Lilibet	1.01	$-1.00
2026-03-20	albion park	Shes Crunchy	1.75	$-1.00
2026-03-29	albion park	Blue Suede Rocka	3.55	$-1.00
2026-05-10	albion park	My Ultimate Rudi	1.01	$-1.00
2026-03-27	albion park	Tremendous Sensati	3.05	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.