Sky Racing - Colin Hodges

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.0% trails market-implied 43.6% by -18.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -43.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +2.3% (-45.6% → -43.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +12.3% (-29.4% → -17.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Odds

3.72

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.46

ROI

-43.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

43.6%

Calibration Gap

-18.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	8	25.0%	3.72	$-3.46	-43.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.22	-40.7%
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.24	-8.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	8	25.0%	$-3.46	-43.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
cowra	8	25.0%	$-3.46	-43.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	8	25.0%	$-3.46	-43.2%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-08	cowra	Glowing Rapids	2.76	+$1.76
2026-03-08	cowra	Nafanua	1.78	+$0.78

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-08	cowra	Argyle Laird	12.00	$-1.00
2026-03-08	cowra	Tartan Tiger	2.86	$-1.00
2026-03-08	cowra	Desirous	1.16	$-1.00
2026-03-08	cowra	Molteuno	5.30	$-1.00
2026-03-08	cowra	The Glen	2.36	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-05 22:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.